A Cool Pattern Developing

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Don't forget you can watch that video, along with all of the video and audio products we produce, on your video iPod. Go to iTunes and search ABC 33/40 and you can subscribe from there.

Let me say up front it looks like temperatures here will be below normal for the next two weeks as a blocking pattern develops over North America. That is like a traffic jam, meaning weather features don't move much, and this block features an anomalous upper trough over the eastern half of the nation.

TODAY/TOMORROW: We expect a partly sunny sky today, with a brisk northwest wind ushering in much cooler and drier air. By tomorrow morning, we should be in the upper 40s over the northern half of the state. Tomorrow will be a sunny and pleasant day.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Another cold front should bring showers to the state Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Probably nothing too heavy, and nothing severe. By Sunday, the 00Z GFS suggests the best chance of showers will shift down into South Alabama.

Sunday will be a cool day with highs only in the 60s. The 12Z run of the GFS yesterday was hinting at a chance of upper 30s over the colder valleys of North Alabama by early Monday morning, which is record territory for this time of the year. The 00Z GFS is not as cold, and is closer to being correct in our opinion. But, still we should be down in the 40s.

NEXT WEEK: A deep upper low north of Alabama just sits and spins all week. Lobes rotating around this will mean cloudy periods, and maybe a little scattered light rain on Monday and Tuesday for the northern third of the state. Highs will stay in the cool 60s.

Another front is expected to bring a chance of rain to the state by Thursday (one week from today).

LONG RANGE: The GFS keeps the deep upper trough over the eastern half of the nation all the way through May 26, which means temperatures should remain below normal, and occasional rain opportunities. But, severe weather in this setup is unlikely. We would normally be in the low 80s in mid to late May, sure looks like we will have a hard time getting there for quite a while if models are correct.

Yet another busy today... I will be headed over to Kitty Stone Elementary School in Jacksonville for a weather program for the 4th graders. I have been doing weather programs for the fourth grade over there in May for many years, when I get there that is just another sign the school year is almost over and the summer is closer. I should be back in the office in time to get the afternoon video out by 3:30.

Be sure and scroll down and read the post called "TV Market Madness"... this helps explain why we don't promise long form tornado coverage for some of the counties on the far edge of our coverage area, and what you can do to help get your county in the Birmingham market!
Posted by  
on May 11, 2006, 6:35 am
Well I'm glad we are going to dry out man I don't think I can recall as many storms coming like they did yesterday. But I do have to wonder if the GFS can forecast this cool weather for the next two weeks I don't think it can. We all know that upper lows can be a big pain. So I wonder if it will be as cool for the next two weeks the weather channel has not cought on to that yet. I don't watch the weather channel I just flip to it to see what they have to say and right now they do have us cool Sunday and Monday but by Tuesday we warm back up to whare we should be. There is a upper low but it's over the great lakes.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on May 11, 2006, 7:00 am
I certainly hope the GFS is wrong and that low doesn't just sit there for two weeks. A day or two of this is one thing, but two weeks? I want 80s!

Reply to this comment