A Few Showers Out There

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

A very interesting discussion on Weather Brains this week about using "probability of precipitation" in a public forecast... check out the show:

http://www.weatherbrains.com/

Bottom line is that nobody in this office likes POPs, and we rarely (and I really mean rarely) use them. I will write a long post on summer weather forecasting here in a few days...

SCATTERED SHOWERS: Looks like the radar has the measles this afternoon. A number of showers are on our screen, but they are small and widely spaced. The showers are in response to unstable air over Alabama, thanks to the cold upper trough over the eastern half of the nation. The air aloft is very cold, so despite the cool surface temperatures we still have convection going on.

The weather won't change much tomorrow. A few scattered showers; some good intervals of sunshine, and temperatures below normal for mid-May in Alabama.

WARMER DAYS: A warming trend begins on Thursday; we should reach the upper 70s Thursday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Low 80s seem likely by Friday.

WEEKEND THOUGHTS: The 12Z GFS has come in pretty dry for Saturday and Sunday in Alabama. The model keeps a surface boundary to the north of here over the weekend, and most of the showers stay in Tennessee. I am not convinced this is the correct solution; I still think a few scattered showers might show up here over the weekend. But, no big deal. No wash-out, and rainfall amounts should be light and spotty. Temperatures over the weekend should be close to normal for this time of the year, with low 80s each afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks rather uneventful, but the GFS develops something that looks like a tropical storm over the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Thursday (May 25), and moves it into Alabama and Georgia on Friday (May 26). Can a tropical system form in late May? Sure. But, the water is still a little cool; we checked buoy 42039 in the Gulf, about 120 miles southeast of Pensacola, and the water temperature was only 76.5 degrees (F) this afternoon. You really want to see those SSTs in the low 80s for a big tropical event. But, it is not out of the question.

Also keep in mind the GFS is famous for painting bogus tropical systems more than a week in advance. Lets wait and see.

Thanks to everyone in Guin for their hospitality today... I spoke to the residents of the Sunrise Manor retirement community. Nice of Mayor Phil Segraves to drop by; they are really working on a big renovation plan for downtown Guin that is coming along nicely. Tonight I will write a little more here about the trip and some thoughts on the 1974 F5 tornado that just about wiped out the town...

The next map discussion video will be on the server bright and early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.!