The Friday morning map discussion is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
The video is also available via iTunes...
COOL SNAP OVER: After 13 days in a row with temperatures below 80, we reached 84 yesterday in Birmingham to break the streak. That was 6 degrees warmer than forecast, so I give myself a "D" on the temperature forecast. But, the dewpoints remain fairly low so it was a comfortable 84.
TODAY/TOMORROW: Temperatures will rise well into the 80s. Looks like we will need to mention the chance of isolated thunderstorms both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon as well. When we say isolated, that means the storms will be few and far between, and most neighborhoods will be dry. However, where the storms form they could be strong to severe, especially over the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama. The best chance of a storm will come from about 4:00 p.m. until 7:00 p.m.
Late last night, it looked like the chance of an afternoon storm was so small it wasn't worth the mention tomorrow. But the WRF model run up at the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition Center in Huntsville shows a band of thunderstorms late tomorrow over north-central Alabama, which is enough evidence for me. I should mention, however, that the NAM and the GFS are basically dry as a bone.
So... again, we will mention isolated afternoon storms today and tomorrow, but most spots won't get any rain.
We should mention SPC has a slight risk of severe weather for the Tennessee Valley today, and for the northern third of the state tomorrow. See the video for more details.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: I guess we might consider isolated afternoon storms on these days as well, but warmer air aloft should keep a lid on any convection. Both of these days look dry and warm for now.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS shows enough low level moisture for "scattered afternoon showers and storms" by the middle of the week, very typical for late May in Alabama. Highs will be in the 80s, and humidity levels will be much higher as dewpoints soar into the 60s.
LONG RANGE: Early June should begin with warm and humid weather, and the chance of daily afternoon airmass thunderstorms. There is some hint at a northeast U.S. trough around June 2-3 that might drive a cold front through here, but cold front passages become increasingly rare in June here in Alabama. They can happen, but just not that often. Of course, by the time you get to July and August you can't buy a good cold front here.
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
The video is also available via iTunes...
COOL SNAP OVER: After 13 days in a row with temperatures below 80, we reached 84 yesterday in Birmingham to break the streak. That was 6 degrees warmer than forecast, so I give myself a "D" on the temperature forecast. But, the dewpoints remain fairly low so it was a comfortable 84.
TODAY/TOMORROW: Temperatures will rise well into the 80s. Looks like we will need to mention the chance of isolated thunderstorms both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon as well. When we say isolated, that means the storms will be few and far between, and most neighborhoods will be dry. However, where the storms form they could be strong to severe, especially over the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama. The best chance of a storm will come from about 4:00 p.m. until 7:00 p.m.
Late last night, it looked like the chance of an afternoon storm was so small it wasn't worth the mention tomorrow. But the WRF model run up at the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition Center in Huntsville shows a band of thunderstorms late tomorrow over north-central Alabama, which is enough evidence for me. I should mention, however, that the NAM and the GFS are basically dry as a bone.
So... again, we will mention isolated afternoon storms today and tomorrow, but most spots won't get any rain.
We should mention SPC has a slight risk of severe weather for the Tennessee Valley today, and for the northern third of the state tomorrow. See the video for more details.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: I guess we might consider isolated afternoon storms on these days as well, but warmer air aloft should keep a lid on any convection. Both of these days look dry and warm for now.
NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS shows enough low level moisture for "scattered afternoon showers and storms" by the middle of the week, very typical for late May in Alabama. Highs will be in the 80s, and humidity levels will be much higher as dewpoints soar into the 60s.
LONG RANGE: Early June should begin with warm and humid weather, and the chance of daily afternoon airmass thunderstorms. There is some hint at a northeast U.S. trough around June 2-3 that might drive a cold front through here, but cold front passages become increasingly rare in June here in Alabama. They can happen, but just not that often. Of course, by the time you get to July and August you can't buy a good cold front here.
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!