The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
As I write this a small cluster of thunderstorms is moving through the northwest part of the state, over Marion and Franklin counties. These storms, and any others that form this evening, will move from northwest to southeast. But, with surface dewpoints only in the 40s, it is hard to imagine these things holding together, or even becoming severe. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the far northern part of Alabama this evening, but many neighborhoods will stay dry.
TOMORROW: Once again, SPC has a slight risk of severe storms up for about the northern third of Alabama. A surface boundary will be in the area providing some low level convergence, but a capping inversion and the lack of really deep surface moisture will be a big limiting factor. Any storm that can form late tomorrow can produce gusty winds. The WRF model continues to be pretty aggressive in developing a band of showers and storms over the north and central part of the state tomorrow afternoon.
Bottom line is that we will continue to mention isolated storms late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening, but many spots will be dry.
Temperatures will rise well into the 80s tomorrow; in fact the GFS MOS is printing 90 for Birmingham. The NAM has a high of 85, and is probably closer to being correct.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: Warm weather continues, and any showers or storms should be very scarce on these two days as the air aloft becomes warmer. You really can't rule out a brief shower or storm during the late afternoon hours, but most likely they will be near the Tennessee border.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: A few scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible during the middle of next week as surface moisture increases and the instability goes up as well. Afternoon temperatures will continue to peak in the 80s.
LONG RANGE: The 384 hour GFS, valid June 4, develops a tropical storm around the tip of the Yucatan peninsula, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Before you get too excited, remember this is way out there in VOODOO land, and it will probably be gone on the next run. But, we note there will be a rather large anticyclone aloft over the Gulf of Mexico, and SSTs in the southern Gulf have reached 80 degrees (F). Buoy 42003, which is 260 nm south of Panama City, is now reporting a sea water temperature of 82 degrees.
So, an early season tropical storm is not out of the question... we will be watching.
My next map discussion video will come Monday morning by 7:00 a.m... Brian Peters will have the updates here over the weekend! Have a great weekend... spend some quality time with your family and share some laughs together!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
As I write this a small cluster of thunderstorms is moving through the northwest part of the state, over Marion and Franklin counties. These storms, and any others that form this evening, will move from northwest to southeast. But, with surface dewpoints only in the 40s, it is hard to imagine these things holding together, or even becoming severe. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the far northern part of Alabama this evening, but many neighborhoods will stay dry.
TOMORROW: Once again, SPC has a slight risk of severe storms up for about the northern third of Alabama. A surface boundary will be in the area providing some low level convergence, but a capping inversion and the lack of really deep surface moisture will be a big limiting factor. Any storm that can form late tomorrow can produce gusty winds. The WRF model continues to be pretty aggressive in developing a band of showers and storms over the north and central part of the state tomorrow afternoon.
Bottom line is that we will continue to mention isolated storms late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening, but many spots will be dry.
Temperatures will rise well into the 80s tomorrow; in fact the GFS MOS is printing 90 for Birmingham. The NAM has a high of 85, and is probably closer to being correct.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: Warm weather continues, and any showers or storms should be very scarce on these two days as the air aloft becomes warmer. You really can't rule out a brief shower or storm during the late afternoon hours, but most likely they will be near the Tennessee border.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: A few scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible during the middle of next week as surface moisture increases and the instability goes up as well. Afternoon temperatures will continue to peak in the 80s.
LONG RANGE: The 384 hour GFS, valid June 4, develops a tropical storm around the tip of the Yucatan peninsula, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Before you get too excited, remember this is way out there in VOODOO land, and it will probably be gone on the next run. But, we note there will be a rather large anticyclone aloft over the Gulf of Mexico, and SSTs in the southern Gulf have reached 80 degrees (F). Buoy 42003, which is 260 nm south of Panama City, is now reporting a sea water temperature of 82 degrees.
So, an early season tropical storm is not out of the question... we will be watching.
My next map discussion video will come Monday morning by 7:00 a.m... Brian Peters will have the updates here over the weekend! Have a great weekend... spend some quality time with your family and share some laughs together!