The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Today I will begin the annual series "Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches". The first post will actually come tonight, and it will feature five parts. Here on the blog I will keep adding the new parts, and by Friday the entire trip will be ready. So, if you have a beach trip planned take a look at my journey through Alabama on the "roads less traveled". I do my best to make the route every year fun, scenic, entertaining, educational, and, or course, one with lots of great places to eat along the way.
TROPICS: Seems like everyone wants to know whats up in the Gulf of Mexico. Watch the video today for more... but you can see the mass of clouds in the Gulf this morning is mainly on the east side of an upper low in the western Gulf of Mexico. Not a good set-up for an early season tropical storm. We also note SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the northern Gulf are still a little cool; mostly mid to upper 70s. You can find that good 80 degree water over the southern Gulf. Bottom line is that I don't expect any early season tropical storm down there this week.
BUT... next week might be a different story. The GFS hints at an anti-cyclone over the Gulf, warmer water, and some type of depression forming that might move toward the central Gulf coast. But, remember, the GFS is famous for bogus tropical systems beyond seven days, so I sure wouldn't hang your hat on that solution.
We will watch for any old, dying surface front that can make it into the northern Gulf waters. That is usually a favorable setup for early season systems. And, we have to remember early season systems are mainly known for heavy rain and flooding. Our friends in Houston remember tropical storm Allison, which dropped over 30 inches of rain on their city with extemely serious flooding. Tropical storm Alberto in July 1994 produced rain amounts over 20 inches in parts of southern Georgia.
AROUND HERE: A stalled surface boundary continues north of Alabama, and SPC once again has a slight risk of severe weather today in the general area from Memphis to Savannah. Seems like the best chance of scattered storms again today will be north of here, but last night's storms over southern Tennessee might kick an outflow boundary into North Alabama, which might mean scattered storms a little deeper into the state this afternoon and tonight. I still get the idea most communities along I-20 will stay dry.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The boundary fizzles out, and with warm temperatures aloft and no low level convergence the chance of rain looks extremely small. Warm and dry weather will be the story with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 80s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Guess we might mention a small risk of a shower late Thursday, but the better chance of scattered showers and storms will come Friday as deeper moisture moves in from the south.
WEEKEND PEEK: The Memorial Day weekend looks pretty "normal"; warm and humid with a good deal of sun, but also a few scattered showers and storms. Highs over the weekend in the mid 80s, maybe upper 80s in spots.
BUSY DAY: I am looking forward to driving up to Bear Creek, in the far northeast corner of Marion County, for a school weather program today. This is the last regular "KIDCAM" trip of the year since most school systems are out in a few days. I hope to have the afternoon video on time (3:30) this afternoon, but it might be a few minutes late due to the length of the trip!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Today I will begin the annual series "Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches". The first post will actually come tonight, and it will feature five parts. Here on the blog I will keep adding the new parts, and by Friday the entire trip will be ready. So, if you have a beach trip planned take a look at my journey through Alabama on the "roads less traveled". I do my best to make the route every year fun, scenic, entertaining, educational, and, or course, one with lots of great places to eat along the way.
TROPICS: Seems like everyone wants to know whats up in the Gulf of Mexico. Watch the video today for more... but you can see the mass of clouds in the Gulf this morning is mainly on the east side of an upper low in the western Gulf of Mexico. Not a good set-up for an early season tropical storm. We also note SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the northern Gulf are still a little cool; mostly mid to upper 70s. You can find that good 80 degree water over the southern Gulf. Bottom line is that I don't expect any early season tropical storm down there this week.
BUT... next week might be a different story. The GFS hints at an anti-cyclone over the Gulf, warmer water, and some type of depression forming that might move toward the central Gulf coast. But, remember, the GFS is famous for bogus tropical systems beyond seven days, so I sure wouldn't hang your hat on that solution.
We will watch for any old, dying surface front that can make it into the northern Gulf waters. That is usually a favorable setup for early season systems. And, we have to remember early season systems are mainly known for heavy rain and flooding. Our friends in Houston remember tropical storm Allison, which dropped over 30 inches of rain on their city with extemely serious flooding. Tropical storm Alberto in July 1994 produced rain amounts over 20 inches in parts of southern Georgia.
AROUND HERE: A stalled surface boundary continues north of Alabama, and SPC once again has a slight risk of severe weather today in the general area from Memphis to Savannah. Seems like the best chance of scattered storms again today will be north of here, but last night's storms over southern Tennessee might kick an outflow boundary into North Alabama, which might mean scattered storms a little deeper into the state this afternoon and tonight. I still get the idea most communities along I-20 will stay dry.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The boundary fizzles out, and with warm temperatures aloft and no low level convergence the chance of rain looks extremely small. Warm and dry weather will be the story with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 80s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Guess we might mention a small risk of a shower late Thursday, but the better chance of scattered showers and storms will come Friday as deeper moisture moves in from the south.
WEEKEND PEEK: The Memorial Day weekend looks pretty "normal"; warm and humid with a good deal of sun, but also a few scattered showers and storms. Highs over the weekend in the mid 80s, maybe upper 80s in spots.
BUSY DAY: I am looking forward to driving up to Bear Creek, in the far northeast corner of Marion County, for a school weather program today. This is the last regular "KIDCAM" trip of the year since most school systems are out in a few days. I hope to have the afternoon video on time (3:30) this afternoon, but it might be a few minutes late due to the length of the trip!