This is National Hurricane Prepardness Week. As part of that, NOAA will issue their 2006 hurricane season outlook at 10 o'clock CST this morning.
Dr. William Gray, who heads a well respected hurricane and tropical storm research team at Colorado State Universiity, Fort Collins, will be stepping into the background after 22 years of issuing the forecasts. However, He will still be part of the team and closely involved. Starting with their next forecast. Phil Klotzbach will assume the primary responsibility for the forecasts. Phil has been a part of Dr. Gray's team for five years and Dr. Gray has much confidence in him.
Here is a summary of Dr. Gray's 2006 season forecast issued in December. Not sure when the next update will be:
17 named storms (there were 28 in 2005)
85 days with a tropical storm/hurricane in progress (115 days in 2005)
9 hurricanes (14 in 2005)
5 intense hurricanes (7 in 2005) Intense means Category 3,4,5
81% chance that an intense hurricane will make landfall in the USA. (average for the last 100 years 52%)
64% chance of an intense hurricane landfall on U.S East Coast, including Florida Peninsula (31% 100-year average)
47% chance of an intense hurricane landfalling somewhere along the Northwest Florida-Alabama-Mississippi-Louisiana-Texas Coast. (100-year average 30%)
If this forecast holds up, we will have another active season but not as active as last season.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
Water temperatures are already up to 83 in the NW Carribean and 81 in the SE Gulf. However, over much of the North and NE Gulf, temperatures are still relatively cool--in the mid and upper 70s. Tropical storms and hurricanes need water temperatures at least 80 to have much of a chance. The storms really like water temperatures around 84 and 85. When they warm to 86 and 87, it is like turning James Spann loose in an all-you-can-eat- BBQ joint. They go beserk (assuming all other factors are favorable)
2006 NAMES
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William
Last season, with 26 named storms, we went five deep into the Greek alphabet. First time ever.
DR. WILLIAM GRAY AND WEATHER BRAINS
Dr. Gray will be a guest on our weekly Weather Brains taping tonight. You can hear it tomorrow morning.
Another interesting site about tropical storms/hurricanes:
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html
Dr. William Gray, who heads a well respected hurricane and tropical storm research team at Colorado State Universiity, Fort Collins, will be stepping into the background after 22 years of issuing the forecasts. However, He will still be part of the team and closely involved. Starting with their next forecast. Phil Klotzbach will assume the primary responsibility for the forecasts. Phil has been a part of Dr. Gray's team for five years and Dr. Gray has much confidence in him.
Here is a summary of Dr. Gray's 2006 season forecast issued in December. Not sure when the next update will be:
17 named storms (there were 28 in 2005)
85 days with a tropical storm/hurricane in progress (115 days in 2005)
9 hurricanes (14 in 2005)
5 intense hurricanes (7 in 2005) Intense means Category 3,4,5
81% chance that an intense hurricane will make landfall in the USA. (average for the last 100 years 52%)
64% chance of an intense hurricane landfall on U.S East Coast, including Florida Peninsula (31% 100-year average)
47% chance of an intense hurricane landfalling somewhere along the Northwest Florida-Alabama-Mississippi-Louisiana-Texas Coast. (100-year average 30%)
If this forecast holds up, we will have another active season but not as active as last season.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
Water temperatures are already up to 83 in the NW Carribean and 81 in the SE Gulf. However, over much of the North and NE Gulf, temperatures are still relatively cool--in the mid and upper 70s. Tropical storms and hurricanes need water temperatures at least 80 to have much of a chance. The storms really like water temperatures around 84 and 85. When they warm to 86 and 87, it is like turning James Spann loose in an all-you-can-eat- BBQ joint. They go beserk (assuming all other factors are favorable)
2006 NAMES
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William
Last season, with 26 named storms, we went five deep into the Greek alphabet. First time ever.
DR. WILLIAM GRAY AND WEATHER BRAINS
Dr. Gray will be a guest on our weekly Weather Brains taping tonight. You can hear it tomorrow morning.
Another interesting site about tropical storms/hurricanes:
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html
on May 22, 2006, 9:26 am
Reply to this comment
on May 22, 2006, 9:29 am
Reply to this comment