A Strong Storm Later Today?

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

I know a bunch of people that are headed out of town this morning for summer vacation... if that is the case for your family be safe and careful!

Storms over Tennessee fell apart during the pre-dawn hours, but an outflow boundary should be over North Alabama later today, and could serve as a focus for new thunderstorm formation. Any storms that do form this afternoon should be healthy; the NAM runs surface based CAPEs to values well over 3,000 this afternoon. Of course, those kind of numbers are not too unusual for a summer afternoon in Alabama. But, you can bet that surface parcels will be rising.

The big question is the strength of the capping inversion; we will take a good look at the morning soundings when they arrive a little later. With a short wave just north of here, the air aloft should be a tad cooler today, and the cap should be a little weaker.

Bottom line is that today will be hot and humid with scattered strong storms this afternoon and this evening.

We could use a little rain; the last measurable rain in Birmingham was May 17. Good news is that we still have a nice surplus for the year, the total of 29.72" is 5.32" above normal.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND: The surface front will wash out, and the warm upper ridge will build over us. So, hot and humid weather continues through Monday with highs in the 88 to 92 degree range, and a handful of afternoon storms around in scattered spots. Trying to determine the placment and coverage of afternoon storms is very difficult since it all depends on mesoscale features... the strength of the capping inversion, and small scale boundaries like the daily seabreeze, or outflow boundaries from previous convetion. The usual TV weather talk like "high pressure", "cold fronts", etc... don't mean much in the summer in Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS seems to suggest an increase in shower and storm activity over Alabama next week with copious amounts of low level moisture making for an unstable setup. However, we have no upper air dynamics to help things along, so for now we will just hang on to "scattered, mainly afternoon thunderstorms" on a daily basis.

Once again, if you are on the road today be safe. And, if you are headed to Gulf Shores or Orange Beach be sure and check out my annual beach route (the post below this one). It will take a little extra time, but it will provide a very memorable trip, and you will see parts of Alabama very few people know about!

The next map discussion video should be posted by 3:30 this afternoon...