Time to talk summer weather forecasting in Alabama. Lets look at some important points:
*There will be a chance of afternoon showers or storms on about 9 out of 10 days from now through the end of August.
*The storms will be widely scattered, and at 7:00 in the morning it is almost impossible to tell you when and where it will rain during the afternoon. This drives us crazy, and some of you too.
*The words “hot, hazy, and humid” will be used more than any other in summer weather forecasts in Alabama.
*Day to day weather changes are usually very subtle, and many times not noticeable.
*About the only weather feature that can bring a widespread, soaking, “all day” kind of rain is a tropical storm or hurricane.
*We hate to use “probability of precipitation”, especially this time of the year. Nobody understands…
See this post for more on that subject:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/post/wxtalk/4511/
Yesterday was a great example of a typical summer day in Alabama. Highs were in the low 90s, there was a decent amount of hazy sunshine, and a handful of communities saw rain during the afternoon. Some spots dealt with strong storms with gusty winds and some hail, but a large percentage of the territory was dry and hot.
Here are some of the descriptive words we use when it comes to afternoon storms, in increasing order of expected coverage: isolated, widely scattered, scattered, and numerous. Isolated suggests most spots will be dry, while numerous suggests most places will get wet.
The placement and timing of showers and storms on a summer day all depends on small scale features, like: the strength of the cap (a warm layer of air aloft), any low level convergence from mesoscale boundaries, enhanced moisture convergence, and pockets of colder air aloft. This stuff is not always easy to identify.
It is my hope that the next generation of meteorologists will be able to tell you when and where it will rain on a summer afternoon several hours BEFORE the showers form. No way it happens on my watch. But, we will sure keep trying. If you read this blog, you are ahead of the curve. On summer days you have to go beyond the little pictures we show on the seven day graphic and read these discussions. You can find great clues about your actual chance of getting wet on a summer day!
*There will be a chance of afternoon showers or storms on about 9 out of 10 days from now through the end of August.
*The storms will be widely scattered, and at 7:00 in the morning it is almost impossible to tell you when and where it will rain during the afternoon. This drives us crazy, and some of you too.
*The words “hot, hazy, and humid” will be used more than any other in summer weather forecasts in Alabama.
*Day to day weather changes are usually very subtle, and many times not noticeable.
*About the only weather feature that can bring a widespread, soaking, “all day” kind of rain is a tropical storm or hurricane.
*We hate to use “probability of precipitation”, especially this time of the year. Nobody understands…
See this post for more on that subject:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/post/wxtalk/4511/
Yesterday was a great example of a typical summer day in Alabama. Highs were in the low 90s, there was a decent amount of hazy sunshine, and a handful of communities saw rain during the afternoon. Some spots dealt with strong storms with gusty winds and some hail, but a large percentage of the territory was dry and hot.
Here are some of the descriptive words we use when it comes to afternoon storms, in increasing order of expected coverage: isolated, widely scattered, scattered, and numerous. Isolated suggests most spots will be dry, while numerous suggests most places will get wet.
The placement and timing of showers and storms on a summer day all depends on small scale features, like: the strength of the cap (a warm layer of air aloft), any low level convergence from mesoscale boundaries, enhanced moisture convergence, and pockets of colder air aloft. This stuff is not always easy to identify.
It is my hope that the next generation of meteorologists will be able to tell you when and where it will rain on a summer afternoon several hours BEFORE the showers form. No way it happens on my watch. But, we will sure keep trying. If you read this blog, you are ahead of the curve. On summer days you have to go beyond the little pictures we show on the seven day graphic and read these discussions. You can find great clues about your actual chance of getting wet on a summer day!