Isolated Storms Possible

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I'll be filling in for James Spann for the rest of this week, but I don't rise as early as he does, so look for the morning map discussion videos to be a tad later - I will try to have them posted no later than 8 am, except tomorrow morning. I will have a discussion but no video due to an early morning appointment.

Well, I don't know about you, but I'm already tired of the heat and humidity. And it still looks like some relief may be on the way. But for now, we've got at least one more day of the three-Hs weather, hazy, hot, and humid! I really hate the milky sky we see on many summer days - I favor the brilliant blues you see after cold fronts, with strong winter highs and all that subsidence, and after passing tropical systems.

Thursday a cold front draws nearer to Alabama so we should see more clouds which should help to knock a few degrees off the afternoon high.

The GFS continues to bring the front through Alabama on Friday as a trough develops over the eastern half of the US. So I do expect nearly everyone to see some rain between Thursday afternoon and Friday evening. Since the whole system will be moving relatively slowly, we could see rainfall amounts on the order of one-half to one inch with spots of heavier amounts.

Saturday and Sunday look like we should see some great weather with temperatures falling back to seasonal values along with lowered humidity - woohoo!!

The first of next week becomes interesting with the GFS developing a closed low over Georgia. If the GFS position is correct, we'll stay dry. Should the low be just a tad further west, we could see a cloudy, wet period, so this one will be an interesting forecast challenge.

Speaking of forecast challenges, tomorrow is the official start to the 2006 hurricane season. The two big guys in hurricane outlooks, Dr. William Gray and the National Weather Service, have both rendered their predictions and we seem to be headed for another above normal season. Not like 2005, however, we could see up to 17 named storms. At ABC 33/40, we've already tuned up our weather data to bring you the latest from the tropics.

Hope you have a great day. I'll try to have another discussion posted between 4 and 5 pm today.

-Brian-

Posted by Austin  
on May 31, 2006, 10:52 am
It seems like everytime I read about the 2006 hurricane outlook, the words "not as bad as 2005" or "not like 2005" come up. This will be a devestating hurricane season, and I hope the public does not get a false sense of security. When words like "not as bad" are used, human nature is to just think of it as being "not that serious".

The May forecast issued by NOAA for the 2006 season is calling for more storms than the May 2005 outlook issued last year. I can not recall a time where NOAA was forecasting more storms in their May outlook than they are this year.

The May 2005 outlook issued by NOAA: 12-15 storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes.

The May 2006 outlook issued by NOAA: 13-16 storms, 8-10 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes.

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Posted by  
on May 31, 2006, 1:00 pm
Today's NY Times article sites a Purdue University study and a study by MIT (separate work) which both found links to Hurricane intensity and global warming.

The ABC weather people need to start informing people of the truth instead of repeating the big oil co. disinformation agenda.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/31/science/31climate.html?ex=13067
28000&en=cf91c86599288bd1&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss


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Posted by Mikey  
on May 31, 2006, 2:22 pm
Let's see...we had twice the number of named storms than the May 2005 outlook...what does that say for these "outlooks"? Outlooks are fine, but if they can't be any more accurate than that, what's the use in even issuing them?

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Posted by  
on May 31, 2006, 3:25 pm
I don't think you can judge them from one year of storms. I believe that you gather data from many years and base opinions on that. They will never be perfect when they issue outlooks. If they ever happen to hit it, it will have to be more luck than skill. I say just to keep your eyes peeled and run and duck when they say to. I kind of like being alive.

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Posted by Daniel  
on May 31, 2006, 1:39 pm
I just thought I would post my temp here.

99°F at 2:33 pm here in Garden City,Cullman in the shade where all three of my thermometers are located, land elevation 950ft.

I put a white background thermometer in the sun and it hit 120°F, I also did the same thing last year. the hottest it ever got was 117°F in August, can't wait to try that this August,LOL.

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Posted by  
on May 31, 2006, 3:01 pm
Well I really don't think it will be as bad as last year as far as the number of named storms go.

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