Here a few thoughts as we approach the first major severe weather threat of the year:
*Our live Pinpoint Doppler radar on Double Oak mountain is down this morning... Ron Thomas and our great engineering team will head up on the hill and take a look this weekend; we will do our best to get it back online for Monday and Tuesday. Please use the Birmingham NWS NEXRAD as a backup until we get back in operation.
*The Day 3 SPC severe weather outlook includes the western half of Alabama in a risk for Monday:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
*Based on the model guidance, it is beginning to look like the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will now come from 2:00 a.m. through 4:00 p.m. Tuesday.
*The new 12Z NAM has completed, and our severe weather parameters for noon Tuesday are very, very impressive:
CAPE 2340
Lifted Index -8.9
Surface temperature/dewpoint 73/64
SWEAT Index: 511
Total totals: 59
If you want to learn about severe weather parameters, here is a great site to help you: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/indices.htm
Remember, the ultimate placement of the greatest risk of severe weather will depend on small scale features that we really won't know about until we get within 24 hours of the event. But, there is no doubt we will have a potent severe weather setup late Monday night and Tuesday.
Once again, this is a great time to review your severe weather plan for your home and business. And, if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio today is a great day to buy one. Be sure and get one with the new digital encoding so you can choose the county for which the alarm sounds (called S.A.M.E.), and with a battery backup.
Hopefully the worst of the weather will pass us by on Tuesday, but we have to be ready.
We will stay in touch this weekend as new data comes in this weekend!
*Our live Pinpoint Doppler radar on Double Oak mountain is down this morning... Ron Thomas and our great engineering team will head up on the hill and take a look this weekend; we will do our best to get it back online for Monday and Tuesday. Please use the Birmingham NWS NEXRAD as a backup until we get back in operation.
*The Day 3 SPC severe weather outlook includes the western half of Alabama in a risk for Monday:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
*Based on the model guidance, it is beginning to look like the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will now come from 2:00 a.m. through 4:00 p.m. Tuesday.
*The new 12Z NAM has completed, and our severe weather parameters for noon Tuesday are very, very impressive:
CAPE 2340
Lifted Index -8.9
Surface temperature/dewpoint 73/64
SWEAT Index: 511
Total totals: 59
If you want to learn about severe weather parameters, here is a great site to help you: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/indices.htm
Remember, the ultimate placement of the greatest risk of severe weather will depend on small scale features that we really won't know about until we get within 24 hours of the event. But, there is no doubt we will have a potent severe weather setup late Monday night and Tuesday.
Once again, this is a great time to review your severe weather plan for your home and business. And, if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio today is a great day to buy one. Be sure and get one with the new digital encoding so you can choose the county for which the alarm sounds (called S.A.M.E.), and with a battery backup.
Hopefully the worst of the weather will pass us by on Tuesday, but we have to be ready.
We will stay in touch this weekend as new data comes in this weekend!
on March 19, 2005, 10:06 am
That NAM model must have just updated. In the NWS discussion this morning, they were saying that the better dynamics may move more north, and that may be the one thing that limits a major outbreak. They may have been going by the GFS, which they also said was too fast in bringing the system through here. Is this what you saw on this morning's NAM, or the one you were talking about???
Thanks,
Will
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