The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Another comfortable morning.... Tuscaloosa is at 55 degrees as I write this. Very nice.
Some interesting issues in the days ahead.
TODAY: Can storms move into North Alabama later today or tonight in this northwest flow pattern? The NAM and the GFS say no, but they also said no in a similar situation last Sunday. As it turned out on that day a few severe storms moved into the northern part of the state, and very healthy storms developed as far south as central Alabama. And that was in a fairly dry airmass like this one.
So, while it does look like most neighborhoods around here will stay dry, we sure won't eliminate the chance of a few isolated storms later today or tonight. They could be pretty strong over the northern third of the state if they do form, but SPC has taken Alabama out of the slight risk area for today.
TOMORROW - SATURDAY: These three days look mostly dry, and fairly hot in the afternoon. We should rise into the upper 80s tomorrow, then be close to 90 on Friday, with low 90s to follow on Saturday. The GFS goes nuts and is showing 96 for Birmingham on Saturday; that seems a little too hot. Lots of sun each day as the upper air high to the west tries to slip in here. The warmer air aloft should keep most communities dry.
SUNDAY: Heights are a little lower, and a surface front will be north of here. We will mention a chance of widely scattered afternoon showers or storms, especially north of Birmingham.
GULF OF MEXICO ACTION? The Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model develops a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and moves it to near Panama City on Sunday. Guess this is possible, but no other model I see shows this. The Canadian takes the system to near Dothan by Sunday night and early Monday. We will keep an eye on future runs... an interesting concept, but we don't buy it for now.
NEXT WEEK: The upper high drifts back to the west, and a surface front will drift in here early next week which should mean an increase in the number of scattered showers and storms. We could use the rain. By Wednesday, the GFS shows a nice eastern U.S. upper trough which might push the front down into deep South Alabama. If that happens we might get a temporary shot of cooler air.
LONG RANGE: The upper ridge rebuilds in the June 18-22 time frame, and we should rise into the low to mid 90s if this is the correct solution with no organized rain areas.
Today I will be speaking to the Society of Cable Telecommunications Engineers down in Clanton. The next map discussion video will be posted here by 3:30 this afternoon!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Another comfortable morning.... Tuscaloosa is at 55 degrees as I write this. Very nice.
Some interesting issues in the days ahead.
TODAY: Can storms move into North Alabama later today or tonight in this northwest flow pattern? The NAM and the GFS say no, but they also said no in a similar situation last Sunday. As it turned out on that day a few severe storms moved into the northern part of the state, and very healthy storms developed as far south as central Alabama. And that was in a fairly dry airmass like this one.
So, while it does look like most neighborhoods around here will stay dry, we sure won't eliminate the chance of a few isolated storms later today or tonight. They could be pretty strong over the northern third of the state if they do form, but SPC has taken Alabama out of the slight risk area for today.
TOMORROW - SATURDAY: These three days look mostly dry, and fairly hot in the afternoon. We should rise into the upper 80s tomorrow, then be close to 90 on Friday, with low 90s to follow on Saturday. The GFS goes nuts and is showing 96 for Birmingham on Saturday; that seems a little too hot. Lots of sun each day as the upper air high to the west tries to slip in here. The warmer air aloft should keep most communities dry.
SUNDAY: Heights are a little lower, and a surface front will be north of here. We will mention a chance of widely scattered afternoon showers or storms, especially north of Birmingham.
GULF OF MEXICO ACTION? The Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model develops a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and moves it to near Panama City on Sunday. Guess this is possible, but no other model I see shows this. The Canadian takes the system to near Dothan by Sunday night and early Monday. We will keep an eye on future runs... an interesting concept, but we don't buy it for now.
NEXT WEEK: The upper high drifts back to the west, and a surface front will drift in here early next week which should mean an increase in the number of scattered showers and storms. We could use the rain. By Wednesday, the GFS shows a nice eastern U.S. upper trough which might push the front down into deep South Alabama. If that happens we might get a temporary shot of cooler air.
LONG RANGE: The upper ridge rebuilds in the June 18-22 time frame, and we should rise into the low to mid 90s if this is the correct solution with no organized rain areas.
Today I will be speaking to the Society of Cable Telecommunications Engineers down in Clanton. The next map discussion video will be posted here by 3:30 this afternoon!
on June 7, 2006, 5:23 am
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