The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Looks like the GFS and the NAM were correct; nothing on radar at mid-afternoon, and nothing upstream over Tennessee at the moment. The chance of rain through Saturday at this points looks so small it isn't really worth the mention on the forecast.
Hot weather is returning; we should be close to 90 tomorrow and Friday, with low 90s over the weekend.
NEXT RAIN? We will bring in at least some risk of widely scattered afternoon showers or storms on Sunday afternoon as the heights will be a little lower, and air aloft a little cooler. Also, a surface front will be north of the state Sunday, which might send an outflow boundary down this way.
That surface front will drift down toward the Alabama/Tennessee border, where it will most likely stall out Monday or Tuesday. Hopefully it will bring one or two decent showers to most Alabama neighborhoods; it is getting pretty dry so a little rain will be a good thing.
In the Birmingham metro, we have had only one good downpour in the last 28 days (June 2 when 0.63" was measured at the Airport).
LONG RANGE: The GFS shows a pretty hot pattern by June 20 with a large heat bubble covering much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The 500 mb heights rise to 5940 meters north of here; if that is correct we will be hot and mostly dry in the June 19-24 time frame.
TROPICS: Conditions are quiet now, but the Canadian GEM model continues to suggest some kind of tropical storm forming in the Gulf over the weekend. The latest run (the 12Z run) of the GEM takes the system to the Louisiana coast, west of New Orleans, late Sunday night or early Monday. Then, it drifts eastward, winding up over extreme South Alabama by Tuesday. Since no other model shows this, including the ECMWF, we have to discount the Canadian solution as an outlier. But, the idea isn't completely out of the question.
Enjoyed a quick drive down to Clanton today to speak to a group of cable TV technicians and engineers... I probably should have picked up some fresh peaches, but time didn't allow it today. I will be back in Chilton County soon enough!
The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Looks like the GFS and the NAM were correct; nothing on radar at mid-afternoon, and nothing upstream over Tennessee at the moment. The chance of rain through Saturday at this points looks so small it isn't really worth the mention on the forecast.
Hot weather is returning; we should be close to 90 tomorrow and Friday, with low 90s over the weekend.
NEXT RAIN? We will bring in at least some risk of widely scattered afternoon showers or storms on Sunday afternoon as the heights will be a little lower, and air aloft a little cooler. Also, a surface front will be north of the state Sunday, which might send an outflow boundary down this way.
That surface front will drift down toward the Alabama/Tennessee border, where it will most likely stall out Monday or Tuesday. Hopefully it will bring one or two decent showers to most Alabama neighborhoods; it is getting pretty dry so a little rain will be a good thing.
In the Birmingham metro, we have had only one good downpour in the last 28 days (June 2 when 0.63" was measured at the Airport).
LONG RANGE: The GFS shows a pretty hot pattern by June 20 with a large heat bubble covering much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The 500 mb heights rise to 5940 meters north of here; if that is correct we will be hot and mostly dry in the June 19-24 time frame.
TROPICS: Conditions are quiet now, but the Canadian GEM model continues to suggest some kind of tropical storm forming in the Gulf over the weekend. The latest run (the 12Z run) of the GEM takes the system to the Louisiana coast, west of New Orleans, late Sunday night or early Monday. Then, it drifts eastward, winding up over extreme South Alabama by Tuesday. Since no other model shows this, including the ECMWF, we have to discount the Canadian solution as an outlier. But, the idea isn't completely out of the question.
Enjoyed a quick drive down to Clanton today to speak to a group of cable TV technicians and engineers... I probably should have picked up some fresh peaches, but time didn't allow it today. I will be back in Chilton County soon enough!
The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!