The Monday morning web update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The big message this morning is that the models continue to slow down the storm system, and our threat of severe weather will hold off until tomorrow, and maybe even tomorrow night.
So, we need to stress here we do not expect any severe weather today, although some light rain or a few showers will stay in the forecast as the moisture deepens across the state.
HIGHLIGHTS:
*Almost all of Alabama is in a moderate risk on the day 2 SPC severe weather outlook. Today, there is a moderate risk to the west over the ARK-LA-TEX region, where severe storms are forming this morning.
*The synoptic scale features strongly favor severe weather, with a 1000 mb low expected to be between Memphis and Little Rock tomorrow afternoon, and all of Alabama in the warm sector. A negative tilt upper trough will support the event with good diffluence aloft.
*BUT, major severe weather events are often determined by small scale features and boundaries that we simply can't resolve very far in advance. We will have a much better idea of the threat tomorrow morning at this time.
*Using BUFKIT (a local analysis program), it is interesting to note the NAM model shows the highest severe weather parameters at midnight Tuesday night!
*Here are the severe weather parameters from the NAM (the 06Z run), valid for midnight tomorrow night:
CAPE 2287
LIFTED INDEX -7.1
0-3 KM HELICITY 196
SWEAT INDEX: 383
TOTAL TOTALS: 55
HAIL SIZE: 1.26
*The initial idea was that a line of severe storms would blow through here early in the morning; we could have a midday break in the action with some sunshine, and another round of severe storms tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening. It could very well be we won't have any severe storms until tomorrow afternoon, or maybe even tomorrow night. One way or another, we will have to watch this very closely.
*If this isn't enough, the GFS is hinting at another severe weather setup over the Easter weekend. We will deal with that once we get past this first system... but for now the greatest risk of severe storms would seem to be Saturday night into Sunday morning. This could change.
We will make more notes here as the day rolls on... so get those RSS readers active and stay tuned!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The big message this morning is that the models continue to slow down the storm system, and our threat of severe weather will hold off until tomorrow, and maybe even tomorrow night.
So, we need to stress here we do not expect any severe weather today, although some light rain or a few showers will stay in the forecast as the moisture deepens across the state.
HIGHLIGHTS:
*Almost all of Alabama is in a moderate risk on the day 2 SPC severe weather outlook. Today, there is a moderate risk to the west over the ARK-LA-TEX region, where severe storms are forming this morning.
*The synoptic scale features strongly favor severe weather, with a 1000 mb low expected to be between Memphis and Little Rock tomorrow afternoon, and all of Alabama in the warm sector. A negative tilt upper trough will support the event with good diffluence aloft.
*BUT, major severe weather events are often determined by small scale features and boundaries that we simply can't resolve very far in advance. We will have a much better idea of the threat tomorrow morning at this time.
*Using BUFKIT (a local analysis program), it is interesting to note the NAM model shows the highest severe weather parameters at midnight Tuesday night!
*Here are the severe weather parameters from the NAM (the 06Z run), valid for midnight tomorrow night:
CAPE 2287
LIFTED INDEX -7.1
0-3 KM HELICITY 196
SWEAT INDEX: 383
TOTAL TOTALS: 55
HAIL SIZE: 1.26
*The initial idea was that a line of severe storms would blow through here early in the morning; we could have a midday break in the action with some sunshine, and another round of severe storms tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening. It could very well be we won't have any severe storms until tomorrow afternoon, or maybe even tomorrow night. One way or another, we will have to watch this very closely.
*If this isn't enough, the GFS is hinting at another severe weather setup over the Easter weekend. We will deal with that once we get past this first system... but for now the greatest risk of severe storms would seem to be Saturday night into Sunday morning. This could change.
We will make more notes here as the day rolls on... so get those RSS readers active and stay tuned!
on March 21, 2005, 10:20 am
It does look quite interesting for a severe weather setup, especially tomorrow. We will be tracking this weather over at radio.nhcwx.com and probably will have some live broadcasts if we have a major outbreak
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