The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
We have our SKYCAM video streaming live if you want to have a birds-eye view of the big fire in downtown Birmingham. Just go to our main weather page and click on the live stream icon (on the upper right):
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/
See the still images here:
http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamscompass.html
TROPICAL ISSUES? A wide variety of models do hint at a tropical low forming just west of the Yucatan peninsula over the weekend. But, tracks vary far and wide. The GFS takes the system to near Pensacola (as a weak tropical system) by the middle of next week. The Canadian is an outlier to the east (and is much faster than all other models); it takes a tropical low to near Appalachicola Monday morning. The Florida State MM5 seems to be a tad west of the GFS, with a path generally toward Mobile, and the European (ECMWF) takes the system westward into the Mexican coast, well south of Brownsville, Texas. Who do you believe?
Bottom line is this... if you have a beach trip planned for next week, don't worry about this. The ECMWF could be correct; this thing might drift into Mexico as a weak low with no big problems. And, another positive; if the GFS is correct we might have a nice beneficial rain event here in Alabama around Thursday of next week, as the tropical moisture merges with an incoming cold front. We really could use something like that.
Stay tuned... we will have a much better idea of the situation by tomorrow.
AROUND HERE: Hot and dry weather is the story through most of the weekend. Highs in the 90 to 95 degree range; lots of sun; and hardly any showers. A few storms might show up Sunday afternoon, especially north of Birmingham, but even up there they should be isolated.
NEXT WEEK: The weather all depends on the tropical situation... the latest GFS run (12Z) does show a sharp upper trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of next week; and it drives a surface cold front through here late Thursday and Thursday night. Drier air follows by Friday June 16. But, this might be a little too aggressive; fronts have a hard time blowing through here in mid-June. Possible, but I am not sold on the idea just yet.
Will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...
http://www.jamesspann.com/
We have our SKYCAM video streaming live if you want to have a birds-eye view of the big fire in downtown Birmingham. Just go to our main weather page and click on the live stream icon (on the upper right):
http://www.abc3340.com/weather/
See the still images here:
http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamscompass.html
TROPICAL ISSUES? A wide variety of models do hint at a tropical low forming just west of the Yucatan peninsula over the weekend. But, tracks vary far and wide. The GFS takes the system to near Pensacola (as a weak tropical system) by the middle of next week. The Canadian is an outlier to the east (and is much faster than all other models); it takes a tropical low to near Appalachicola Monday morning. The Florida State MM5 seems to be a tad west of the GFS, with a path generally toward Mobile, and the European (ECMWF) takes the system westward into the Mexican coast, well south of Brownsville, Texas. Who do you believe?
Bottom line is this... if you have a beach trip planned for next week, don't worry about this. The ECMWF could be correct; this thing might drift into Mexico as a weak low with no big problems. And, another positive; if the GFS is correct we might have a nice beneficial rain event here in Alabama around Thursday of next week, as the tropical moisture merges with an incoming cold front. We really could use something like that.
Stay tuned... we will have a much better idea of the situation by tomorrow.
AROUND HERE: Hot and dry weather is the story through most of the weekend. Highs in the 90 to 95 degree range; lots of sun; and hardly any showers. A few storms might show up Sunday afternoon, especially north of Birmingham, but even up there they should be isolated.
NEXT WEEK: The weather all depends on the tropical situation... the latest GFS run (12Z) does show a sharp upper trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of next week; and it drives a surface cold front through here late Thursday and Thursday night. Drier air follows by Friday June 16. But, this might be a little too aggressive; fronts have a hard time blowing through here in mid-June. Possible, but I am not sold on the idea just yet.
Will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...