The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Don't forget the map discussion video is also available on iTunes, so you can watch it anytime. anywhere on your iPod.
Sure looks like we are watching the birth of tropical storm Alberto in the northwest Caribbean this morning. I think we need to give a big "atta-boy" to the Canadian model, which called this thing early in the week, long before other models had a clue.
WHERE AND HOW STRONG? Since the system is in the infant stage, it is hard to answer all of the questions you have. But, the best model blend has this thing headed for the eastern Florida panhandle, or the big bend region of Florida (generally between Apalachicola and Cedar Key) on Monday as a tropical storm. The GFS, the Canadian, and the GFDL are on board with this scenario.
However, there are outliers. The NAM takes this thing toward the Texas coast (the 06Z run), and the BAM runs also move it toward the western to central Gulf.
For now we will roll with the best blend solution, and plan on a landfall (probably a tropical storm) somewhere near or east of Apalachicola Monday. Unfortunately, this will leave most of Alabama high and dry. The system would cross back into the Atlantic, and move northeast parallel to the eastern seaboard as an upper trough re-builds over the eastern U.S. The best rain will come over the Florida peninsula in this scenario (NOT the panhandle).
BEACH TRIP? If the "best blend" solution is correct, most of the nasty weather (wind and rain) with the new tropical system will be mainly east of Panama City; so no big weather problems for the area from Gulf Shores to Panama City IF that solution is correct. However, the surf will be rough and rip tides will become an issue. If you have a trip planned to the coast just keep an eye on future discussions here.
AROUND HERE: Hot and dry are the words for the weekend. Lots of sunshine each day through Sunday, with highs in the 90 to 95 degree range. A few isolated afternoon showers or storms might show up by Sunday, especially north of Birmingham.
NEXT WEEK: If the tropical system takes the route east of Apalachicola, we stay very dry. Again, a few widely scattered afternoon showers or storms might show up Monday, but the rest of the week would be dry. Not good; this will only increase the outdoor fire danger, and not help our water supplies.
LONG RANGE: The GFS builds a whopper of a hot ridge over much of the U.S. in the June 20-24 time frame, which doesn't offer much hope for rain other than isolated afternoon showers or storms.
It will be interesting to watch the 12Z runs arrive; I will have the afternoon map discussion video (which will feature those runs) posted by 3:30 this afternoon...
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Don't forget the map discussion video is also available on iTunes, so you can watch it anytime. anywhere on your iPod.
Sure looks like we are watching the birth of tropical storm Alberto in the northwest Caribbean this morning. I think we need to give a big "atta-boy" to the Canadian model, which called this thing early in the week, long before other models had a clue.
WHERE AND HOW STRONG? Since the system is in the infant stage, it is hard to answer all of the questions you have. But, the best model blend has this thing headed for the eastern Florida panhandle, or the big bend region of Florida (generally between Apalachicola and Cedar Key) on Monday as a tropical storm. The GFS, the Canadian, and the GFDL are on board with this scenario.
However, there are outliers. The NAM takes this thing toward the Texas coast (the 06Z run), and the BAM runs also move it toward the western to central Gulf.
For now we will roll with the best blend solution, and plan on a landfall (probably a tropical storm) somewhere near or east of Apalachicola Monday. Unfortunately, this will leave most of Alabama high and dry. The system would cross back into the Atlantic, and move northeast parallel to the eastern seaboard as an upper trough re-builds over the eastern U.S. The best rain will come over the Florida peninsula in this scenario (NOT the panhandle).
BEACH TRIP? If the "best blend" solution is correct, most of the nasty weather (wind and rain) with the new tropical system will be mainly east of Panama City; so no big weather problems for the area from Gulf Shores to Panama City IF that solution is correct. However, the surf will be rough and rip tides will become an issue. If you have a trip planned to the coast just keep an eye on future discussions here.
AROUND HERE: Hot and dry are the words for the weekend. Lots of sunshine each day through Sunday, with highs in the 90 to 95 degree range. A few isolated afternoon showers or storms might show up by Sunday, especially north of Birmingham.
NEXT WEEK: If the tropical system takes the route east of Apalachicola, we stay very dry. Again, a few widely scattered afternoon showers or storms might show up Monday, but the rest of the week would be dry. Not good; this will only increase the outdoor fire danger, and not help our water supplies.
LONG RANGE: The GFS builds a whopper of a hot ridge over much of the U.S. in the June 20-24 time frame, which doesn't offer much hope for rain other than isolated afternoon showers or storms.
It will be interesting to watch the 12Z runs arrive; I will have the afternoon map discussion video (which will feature those runs) posted by 3:30 this afternoon...
on June 9, 2006, 5:30 am
Thank you for remembering those of us who will be traveling next week! I feel 1,000,000 times better now and plan on not changing anything! This type of response is what makes ABC 33/40 the ONLY place where I look and trust. Let Intern Drew know that if he models your team's spirit and attitude, he will go far in his broadcast career!
Thanks again!
Mike
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