The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Sure looks like the first tropical depression of the season is forming in the northwest Caribbean. Before we get into possible tracks, remember that early season tropical systems rarely become dangerous hurricanes; their main threat comes from heavy rain and flooding.
Lets look at the model madness with the potential Alberto:
GFS/GEM (Canadian)/BAMD/GFDL
These four models take the system into the "big bend" area of Florida, in the general area from Apalachicola to Tampa Bay. Landfall would come on Monday. Interesting to note the GFDL ramps up the wind speed to 104 knots, or 119 mph, at the time of landfall.
NAM/FSU MM5/ECMWF
These models want to take the system northward, in the general direction of the Louisiana coast. The FSU MM5 is much slower; it holds off landfall until the middle of next week.
For now we continue to lean toward the first scenario, with a track toward the Florida "big bend', and then back out into the Atlantic, running parallel to the east coast of the U.S. On this track, Alabama will be on the dry side of the circulation, with the most widespread rain shield over central and south Florida. Climatology supports this idea much better than a track toward Louisiana.
OUR WEEKEND: Sure looks hot and dry around here. Highs between 90 and 95 and lots of sun. Maybe a few showers by Sunday afternoon, but they will be very isolated.
NEXT WEEK: The weather all depends on "Alberto". If the Florida big bend track we like is correct, most of the week will be dry. Highs for the week will be between 86 and 90, with lows in the 60s. Anytime a tropical system is involved, be ready for a quick changing forecast.
LONG RANGE: Seems like the super hot weather will be over Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Hopefully a "northwest flow" thunderstorm area will drift down this way from time to time, but the chance of a big rain event looks small in the June 17-25 time frame.
Brian Peters is on vacation this weekend, so we might not be able to get map video online, but we will keep the blog fresh with news and ideas on the tropical system forming to the south of here. Have a great weekend and stay tuned!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Sure looks like the first tropical depression of the season is forming in the northwest Caribbean. Before we get into possible tracks, remember that early season tropical systems rarely become dangerous hurricanes; their main threat comes from heavy rain and flooding.
Lets look at the model madness with the potential Alberto:
GFS/GEM (Canadian)/BAMD/GFDL
These four models take the system into the "big bend" area of Florida, in the general area from Apalachicola to Tampa Bay. Landfall would come on Monday. Interesting to note the GFDL ramps up the wind speed to 104 knots, or 119 mph, at the time of landfall.
NAM/FSU MM5/ECMWF
These models want to take the system northward, in the general direction of the Louisiana coast. The FSU MM5 is much slower; it holds off landfall until the middle of next week.
For now we continue to lean toward the first scenario, with a track toward the Florida "big bend', and then back out into the Atlantic, running parallel to the east coast of the U.S. On this track, Alabama will be on the dry side of the circulation, with the most widespread rain shield over central and south Florida. Climatology supports this idea much better than a track toward Louisiana.
OUR WEEKEND: Sure looks hot and dry around here. Highs between 90 and 95 and lots of sun. Maybe a few showers by Sunday afternoon, but they will be very isolated.
NEXT WEEK: The weather all depends on "Alberto". If the Florida big bend track we like is correct, most of the week will be dry. Highs for the week will be between 86 and 90, with lows in the 60s. Anytime a tropical system is involved, be ready for a quick changing forecast.
LONG RANGE: Seems like the super hot weather will be over Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Hopefully a "northwest flow" thunderstorm area will drift down this way from time to time, but the chance of a big rain event looks small in the June 17-25 time frame.
Brian Peters is on vacation this weekend, so we might not be able to get map video online, but we will keep the blog fresh with news and ideas on the tropical system forming to the south of here. Have a great weekend and stay tuned!
on June 9, 2006, 1:01 pm
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