Tropical depression number one remains poorly organized over the northwestern Caribbean this afternoon.
An Air Force reconnaissance flight has really been unable to determine a defined center.
The depression is in an environment that hostile for intensification. It is still expected to become a tropical storm overnight. It now appears that the peak intensity may be closer to 50 mph than the 60 mph as was earlier thought.
But, having said that, forecasting intensity changes is the hardest part of tropical meteorology.
The models are still a little scattered in their solutions for the track. The GFDL/GFS solutions both take the storm into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and then turn it northeast, crossing the coast north of Tampa early Tuesday morning.
The storm will cross the Peninsula and emerge into the open Atlantic, where it will intensify, but as a non-tropical low as it accelerates out to the northeast.
As for impact along the Gulf Coast, the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida should remain rain free for the most part during this situation. The only exception might be over toward Panama City where some showers may sneak in late tomorrow and Monday.
Rip currents will be a problem aong the Gulf Coast if the system strengthens into a tropical storm. Heavier than normal surf can cause deadly undertows a large distance from the storm center. During Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, several people lost their lives on the Alabama/Northwest Florida coast despite the fact that the tropical storm was making landfall near Houston.
The main danger from TD number one for now is heavy rains over Cuba and the Caymans.
An Air Force reconnaissance flight has really been unable to determine a defined center.
The depression is in an environment that hostile for intensification. It is still expected to become a tropical storm overnight. It now appears that the peak intensity may be closer to 50 mph than the 60 mph as was earlier thought.
But, having said that, forecasting intensity changes is the hardest part of tropical meteorology.
The models are still a little scattered in their solutions for the track. The GFDL/GFS solutions both take the storm into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and then turn it northeast, crossing the coast north of Tampa early Tuesday morning.
The storm will cross the Peninsula and emerge into the open Atlantic, where it will intensify, but as a non-tropical low as it accelerates out to the northeast.
As for impact along the Gulf Coast, the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida should remain rain free for the most part during this situation. The only exception might be over toward Panama City where some showers may sneak in late tomorrow and Monday.
Rip currents will be a problem aong the Gulf Coast if the system strengthens into a tropical storm. Heavier than normal surf can cause deadly undertows a large distance from the storm center. During Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, several people lost their lives on the Alabama/Northwest Florida coast despite the fact that the tropical storm was making landfall near Houston.
The main danger from TD number one for now is heavy rains over Cuba and the Caymans.