Early Morning Look at the Tropical Depression

Tropical depression number one is over the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning.

It is the textbook example of a sheared tropical system. The center is clearly exposed out from under the main convection. The thunderstorms that would have to be located around the center are being blown off to the northeast by strong southwesterly winds.

In this situation, the depression will have a significant struggle to intensify. This is good news. It also has an impact on where the depression might go.

Convection is trying to fire around the northern side of the well-defined circulation center this morning. It will remain to be seen if this convection can hold together against the strong shear.

The official forecast still calls for a landfall in the Florida Big Bend area tomorrow evening as a tropical storm. However, we may end up with a weakening exposed circulatoin meandering around the Gulf for a day or two. Only time will tell.

Air Force Reconnaissance is enroute to the depression as I write this.

More throughout the day.