Just sitting here in the City Stages Weather Center looking ot over Linn Park and trying to figure out what is going to happen today. What I wouldn't give for perfect insight into the near future in order to be able to specify exactly where showers will develop this afternoon. Understand that I'm not asking for much - I don't want to forecast the stock market two or three days out, I just like to be able to pinpoint the precious locations where showers will develop.
Let's look at the pattern today. We had showers again yesterday - second day in a row - across a sizable portion of Mississippi. Those showers laid down some boundaries which will probably play some role in development of showers today. Clouds leftover from that convection covered much of the northern third of Alabama setting up additional boundaries between cloud/no cloud area thus creating some temperature differences. Then there is the dew point differences with upper 60s at Tuscaloosa and Meridian while Montgomery to Birmingham area are reporting values in the lower 60s.
Aloft we have a short wave moving out of Texas phasing with another short wave coming out of south central Canada.
In this analysis, we have to peruse the sounding from BMX. There is a cap around 5,400 feet with a strength of 2.5 degrees C. Playing around with the interactive sounding reveals that a temperature of 89 degrees with a dew point of 67 could break the cap producing CAPE values around 1000.
SPC has an outlook for slight risk just northwest of Alabama running from northern Mississippi north and northeast into the eastern Great Lakes area.
So thunderstorms are likely this afternoon across eastern Mississippi, but the question remains as to whether or not those showers will get to the Birmingham area. Yeah, yeah, I am concerned about City Stages - I want to see Hermans Hermits and the Beach Boys and not dealing with weather threats. Of course, a few years ago I met Willie Nelson on stage due to the weather threats, so those threats aren't always a bad thing.
We'll see. The beat goes on (gads, another line from a song).
-Brian-
Let's look at the pattern today. We had showers again yesterday - second day in a row - across a sizable portion of Mississippi. Those showers laid down some boundaries which will probably play some role in development of showers today. Clouds leftover from that convection covered much of the northern third of Alabama setting up additional boundaries between cloud/no cloud area thus creating some temperature differences. Then there is the dew point differences with upper 60s at Tuscaloosa and Meridian while Montgomery to Birmingham area are reporting values in the lower 60s.
Aloft we have a short wave moving out of Texas phasing with another short wave coming out of south central Canada.
In this analysis, we have to peruse the sounding from BMX. There is a cap around 5,400 feet with a strength of 2.5 degrees C. Playing around with the interactive sounding reveals that a temperature of 89 degrees with a dew point of 67 could break the cap producing CAPE values around 1000.
SPC has an outlook for slight risk just northwest of Alabama running from northern Mississippi north and northeast into the eastern Great Lakes area.
So thunderstorms are likely this afternoon across eastern Mississippi, but the question remains as to whether or not those showers will get to the Birmingham area. Yeah, yeah, I am concerned about City Stages - I want to see Hermans Hermits and the Beach Boys and not dealing with weather threats. Of course, a few years ago I met Willie Nelson on stage due to the weather threats, so those threats aren't always a bad thing.
We'll see. The beat goes on (gads, another line from a song).
-Brian-