The Monday morning map discussion video is on web, and also available on iTunes:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
While some folks over Northwest Alabama saw a healthy shower last night (Hamilton had a little over one-half inch of rain), many Alabama lawns remain parched. We have to consider these points as we write these discussions, and you read them:
*Widespread rain is not very common in Alabama during the summer. Even on days when the radar is active, the showers and storms are scattered. And, scattered is the key word.
*Scattered showers and storms means rainfall distribution is very uneven; some yards might get one inch of rain, others remain dry as a bone. Such is the nature of summer rain across the Deep South.
*It is best not to forecast any big increase in rain in the middle of a long dry spell or drought. Those things tend to be self-sustaining to some degree.
So, while we do have scattered showers and storms in the forecast today, remember this is not the kind of long, soaking, widespread rain we need. Usually in summer the only hope for that is a tropical system. But, multuple consecutive days of scattered showers and storms can help as well.
ON THE MAPS: An upper trough is passing north of Alabama today, and a weak upper low is southwest of the state, near the Texas/Louisiana border. Slightly colder aloft today between these two systems should mean at least a chance of scattered showers and storms.
MID-WEEK: Our weather should be hot and mostly dry tomorrow through Thursday as heights go up. Temperatures should reach the mid 90s in many areas with a good deal of sunshine and dry soil. Any afternoon showers should be scarce.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: The chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms will be going up by Friday and the weekend as another trough develops to the north, and a weak surface front approaches. Nothing widespread, but again a few front yards will have a chance of a shower on a daily basis during the afternoon and evening hours.
LONG RANGE: The GFS is suggesting the hottest weather in the nation during late June and early July will be over the southwestern states. And, a mean upper trough shows up from the Great Lakes southwest to the Tennessee Valley. Hopefully this will mean a daily chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms here, and maybe even a day or two with numerous showers.
TROPICS: A nice tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands this morning. This thing might have some chance of getting its act together over the Caribbean in coming days... we will keep an eye on it.
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy your Monday!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
While some folks over Northwest Alabama saw a healthy shower last night (Hamilton had a little over one-half inch of rain), many Alabama lawns remain parched. We have to consider these points as we write these discussions, and you read them:
*Widespread rain is not very common in Alabama during the summer. Even on days when the radar is active, the showers and storms are scattered. And, scattered is the key word.
*Scattered showers and storms means rainfall distribution is very uneven; some yards might get one inch of rain, others remain dry as a bone. Such is the nature of summer rain across the Deep South.
*It is best not to forecast any big increase in rain in the middle of a long dry spell or drought. Those things tend to be self-sustaining to some degree.
So, while we do have scattered showers and storms in the forecast today, remember this is not the kind of long, soaking, widespread rain we need. Usually in summer the only hope for that is a tropical system. But, multuple consecutive days of scattered showers and storms can help as well.
ON THE MAPS: An upper trough is passing north of Alabama today, and a weak upper low is southwest of the state, near the Texas/Louisiana border. Slightly colder aloft today between these two systems should mean at least a chance of scattered showers and storms.
MID-WEEK: Our weather should be hot and mostly dry tomorrow through Thursday as heights go up. Temperatures should reach the mid 90s in many areas with a good deal of sunshine and dry soil. Any afternoon showers should be scarce.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: The chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms will be going up by Friday and the weekend as another trough develops to the north, and a weak surface front approaches. Nothing widespread, but again a few front yards will have a chance of a shower on a daily basis during the afternoon and evening hours.
LONG RANGE: The GFS is suggesting the hottest weather in the nation during late June and early July will be over the southwestern states. And, a mean upper trough shows up from the Great Lakes southwest to the Tennessee Valley. Hopefully this will mean a daily chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms here, and maybe even a day or two with numerous showers.
TROPICS: A nice tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands this morning. This thing might have some chance of getting its act together over the Caribbean in coming days... we will keep an eye on it.
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy your Monday!
on June 19, 2006, 8:39 am
You may want to explain that that means the BACK yards might not see any. That might let people understand the "scattered" versus "widespread" concept.
Thanks for all you do.
Reply to this comment
on June 19, 2006, 10:20 am
Reply to this comment