http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Don't you just hate it when the weather pattern gets into a rut? Well, it looks like the pattern is in a rut right now. The GFS has been doing a pretty decent job with the predictions of the weather pattern as well as remaining fairly consistent in its prognosis. Both of these factors lead to reasonably high confidence in the model and in our prediction of the future weather.
As we end the weekend and head into the first of the week - though many folks may be off until Wednesday - the large surface high pressure located in the Central Atlantic contines to nose across the Southeast. Moisture is here with dewpoints running in the lower 60s, so with the afternoon heating will come isolated showers each day through the middle of the week.
There is little appreciable change to the weather pattern through mid-week, but by Wednesday a low pressure system in the upper atmosphere will begin to carve out another trough across the eastern third of the Nation. As it does, a cold front is expected to approach the area on Wednesday, move through the state on Thursday, and wash out on Friday along the Gulf coast. So the GFS continues to hold out the promise of some widespread rain and perhaps slightly cooler temperatures for the end of the week. It would seem that our best shot at rain will come on Thursday.
Fronts are usually accompanied by drier air, however, with this one expected to wash out along the Gulf coast, we may see ourselves with isolated afternoon storms into next weekend. We'll have to see how far the front travels as well as the character of the air behind it before we can rule out showers completely.
It ramins dry across Central Alabama despite those isolated showers. I haven't gotten one of those showers yet, so I have not had rain for at least three weeks. I'll have to get a loan for the water bill AND my gas bill, too!!
Tropics are fairly quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico, but no signs of any development there. Water temperatures across the Gulf range fromabout 82 degrees to 88 degrees with some of the cooler water just offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula.
I've certainly enjoyed being with you the past several days. James Spann should be back in harness tomorrow morning as he comes off a week-long vacation. Have a great day - God bless.
-Brian-