The Monday morning map discussion video is on the web, and available via iTunes:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Thanks to John Oldshue for covering the TV shift, and to J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray for handling Internet and radio duties while I was away on vacation. We had a great getaway to the Biltmore Estate in North Carolina. Everyone needs a little down time; I know many folks won't be around the office this week thanks to the July 4th holiday.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Looks like an interesting week ahead. Of course, the heat will remain the big story today as afternoon temperatures climb into the 95 to 99 degree range again. And, like recent days, a few showers and storms will probably show up during the peak of the heat, but they will be widely spaced. The chance of your lawn getting wet today is only about one in eight.
FOURTH OF JULY: The upper ridge begins to break down, but I am not sure the weather will change all that much tomorrow. The heat might back off slightly, and there could be a small increase in the coverage of afternoon showers and storms. But, we are still talking highs in the mid 90s, and most fireworks shows will not be bothered by rain tomorrow night.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The models continue to develop a significant upper trough over the eastern half of the nation, driving a rare summer "cold front" down this way. Yeah, you know what we always say, "this is July in Alabama and fronts rarely make it south of I-20". There is great truth in that, and there is a chance the front will indeed hang up somewhere over North Alabama. But, our pal the GFS drives the boundary all the way into South Alabama by Thursday night, and into the northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.
We will bring in a pretty decent chance of scattered showers and storms on both days. But, remember this is summer and rainfall distribution will be very uneven. If you are lucky you might get over one inch of rain, but some neighborhoods will be short-changed. At least we have a decent chance of seeing soil moisture levels increasing.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY: For now we won't mention any showers on these three days. We might have to bring back a chance of isolated afternoon storms, but the models sure look dry. The dry air should mean a pretty big temperature range; low 60s early in the day with low 90s by mid to late afternoon.
LONG RANGE: The most intense heat around the nation in the July 10-18 time frame shows up in the southwest states, where the dreaded "594 circle" shows up (where the 500 mb height is 5940 meters). The GFS suggests a fairly moist airmass covering the Deep South suggesting a decent chance of afternoon showers and storms on a daily basis during that time frame.
TROPICS: Parts of East and South Texas will be soaked today thanks to an unorganized tropical disturbance moving from the western Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is pretty quiet.
If the GFS is correct and the surface front makes it down to the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, we will watch that region since it is a preferred setup for early season tropical development.
JOIN THE PARTY: A reminder we just activated our latest web project, WeatherParty.com. This is a site where you determine what gets published to the front page. If you see an interesting weather product, image, or story, submit the link. The users vote on all submitted links, and the most popular ones make it to the main page. There is always some interesting reading over there:
http://www.weatherparty.com/
Be sure and register and submit links (and vote on other links
I will have the next map discussion video available by 3:30 this afternoon!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Thanks to John Oldshue for covering the TV shift, and to J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray for handling Internet and radio duties while I was away on vacation. We had a great getaway to the Biltmore Estate in North Carolina. Everyone needs a little down time; I know many folks won't be around the office this week thanks to the July 4th holiday.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Looks like an interesting week ahead. Of course, the heat will remain the big story today as afternoon temperatures climb into the 95 to 99 degree range again. And, like recent days, a few showers and storms will probably show up during the peak of the heat, but they will be widely spaced. The chance of your lawn getting wet today is only about one in eight.
FOURTH OF JULY: The upper ridge begins to break down, but I am not sure the weather will change all that much tomorrow. The heat might back off slightly, and there could be a small increase in the coverage of afternoon showers and storms. But, we are still talking highs in the mid 90s, and most fireworks shows will not be bothered by rain tomorrow night.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The models continue to develop a significant upper trough over the eastern half of the nation, driving a rare summer "cold front" down this way. Yeah, you know what we always say, "this is July in Alabama and fronts rarely make it south of I-20". There is great truth in that, and there is a chance the front will indeed hang up somewhere over North Alabama. But, our pal the GFS drives the boundary all the way into South Alabama by Thursday night, and into the northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.
We will bring in a pretty decent chance of scattered showers and storms on both days. But, remember this is summer and rainfall distribution will be very uneven. If you are lucky you might get over one inch of rain, but some neighborhoods will be short-changed. At least we have a decent chance of seeing soil moisture levels increasing.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY: For now we won't mention any showers on these three days. We might have to bring back a chance of isolated afternoon storms, but the models sure look dry. The dry air should mean a pretty big temperature range; low 60s early in the day with low 90s by mid to late afternoon.
LONG RANGE: The most intense heat around the nation in the July 10-18 time frame shows up in the southwest states, where the dreaded "594 circle" shows up (where the 500 mb height is 5940 meters). The GFS suggests a fairly moist airmass covering the Deep South suggesting a decent chance of afternoon showers and storms on a daily basis during that time frame.
TROPICS: Parts of East and South Texas will be soaked today thanks to an unorganized tropical disturbance moving from the western Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is pretty quiet.
If the GFS is correct and the surface front makes it down to the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, we will watch that region since it is a preferred setup for early season tropical development.
JOIN THE PARTY: A reminder we just activated our latest web project, WeatherParty.com. This is a site where you determine what gets published to the front page. If you see an interesting weather product, image, or story, submit the link. The users vote on all submitted links, and the most popular ones make it to the main page. There is always some interesting reading over there:
http://www.weatherparty.com/
Be sure and register and submit links (and vote on other links
I will have the next map discussion video available by 3:30 this afternoon!
on July 3, 2006, 9:07 am
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