The Friday morning web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Get ready for more wild and crazy spring weather.
Another significant severe weather threat is unfolding for Alabama and the southern U.S. We still think most places around here will be dry today, with temperatures soaring to near 80 degrees. This will make for a rather unstable atmosphere, and a few thunderstorms could fire up near a surface boundary that is not too far from the Tennessee border later today. There is a slight risk of severe storms today in the general area from Dallas to Nashville, near that boundary. But, our main problems will come over the Easter weekend:
SATURDAY: SPC has a moderate risk of severe storms for the general area from Birmingham southward, mainly for late tomorrow and tomorrow night. This is a large moderate risk area that extends from eastern Texas to Alabama. They mention the possibility of a few long track tornadoes in this moderate risk area. We feel our main risk of organized severe storms here will come from about 8:00 tomorrow night through 8:00 Sunday morning when severe weather parameters are maximized. BUT, a few isolated severe storms could fire up tomorrow afternoon as the air will be very unstable.
Here are some of the severe weather parameters from the NAM valid for midnight Sunday night:
CAPE 1312
LI -4.6
SWEAT Index 330
Total Totals 52
The Significant Tornado (SIGTOR) parameter peaks at 4.7 near Piedmont, in northeast Alabama, at 6:00 a.m. Sunday. A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1. So, a 4.7 is a little troubling.
SIGTOR includes 0-6-km shear magnitude, 0-1-km storm-relative helicity, 100-mb mean parcel CAPE, and 100-mb mean parcel LCL height (weather geeks will understand all of that).
SUNDAY: A dry slot moves in Sunday morning, and we should be in sunshine during the midday hours. This will make for an unstable atmosphere, and there is a chance another round of severe storms could fire up Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk on Sunday, The greatest risk of severe weather with this second event will be from about 4:00 p.m. through midnight Sunday night.
DOWN THE ROAD: Another stormy period looks possible toward the end of next week, but we will worry about that one after we get past the Easter weekend.
IMPORTANT: Once again, every Alabama church (and home and business for that matter) need a NOAA Weather Radio so you can get tornado warnings. And, you need a plan on getting people into safe places in the event a tornado warning is issued during a worship service, or another time when people are in the church building. On this event, I think the severe weather threat will be fairly low on Sunday morning during most Easter services, but you still need to have a plan in place.
For Easter sunrise services Sunday, the greatest chance of severe storms will most likely be over the eastern third of Alabama.
We will make another detailed post here later today as the new model data arrives...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Get ready for more wild and crazy spring weather.
Another significant severe weather threat is unfolding for Alabama and the southern U.S. We still think most places around here will be dry today, with temperatures soaring to near 80 degrees. This will make for a rather unstable atmosphere, and a few thunderstorms could fire up near a surface boundary that is not too far from the Tennessee border later today. There is a slight risk of severe storms today in the general area from Dallas to Nashville, near that boundary. But, our main problems will come over the Easter weekend:
SATURDAY: SPC has a moderate risk of severe storms for the general area from Birmingham southward, mainly for late tomorrow and tomorrow night. This is a large moderate risk area that extends from eastern Texas to Alabama. They mention the possibility of a few long track tornadoes in this moderate risk area. We feel our main risk of organized severe storms here will come from about 8:00 tomorrow night through 8:00 Sunday morning when severe weather parameters are maximized. BUT, a few isolated severe storms could fire up tomorrow afternoon as the air will be very unstable.
Here are some of the severe weather parameters from the NAM valid for midnight Sunday night:
CAPE 1312
LI -4.6
SWEAT Index 330
Total Totals 52
The Significant Tornado (SIGTOR) parameter peaks at 4.7 near Piedmont, in northeast Alabama, at 6:00 a.m. Sunday. A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1. So, a 4.7 is a little troubling.
SIGTOR includes 0-6-km shear magnitude, 0-1-km storm-relative helicity, 100-mb mean parcel CAPE, and 100-mb mean parcel LCL height (weather geeks will understand all of that).
SUNDAY: A dry slot moves in Sunday morning, and we should be in sunshine during the midday hours. This will make for an unstable atmosphere, and there is a chance another round of severe storms could fire up Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk on Sunday, The greatest risk of severe weather with this second event will be from about 4:00 p.m. through midnight Sunday night.
DOWN THE ROAD: Another stormy period looks possible toward the end of next week, but we will worry about that one after we get past the Easter weekend.
IMPORTANT: Once again, every Alabama church (and home and business for that matter) need a NOAA Weather Radio so you can get tornado warnings. And, you need a plan on getting people into safe places in the event a tornado warning is issued during a worship service, or another time when people are in the church building. On this event, I think the severe weather threat will be fairly low on Sunday morning during most Easter services, but you still need to have a plan in place.
For Easter sunrise services Sunday, the greatest chance of severe storms will most likely be over the eastern third of Alabama.
We will make another detailed post here later today as the new model data arrives...
on March 25, 2005, 6:57 am
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