The Friday afternoon web video is online:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Let me stress up front the prime message here:
We are setting up for a major threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across parts of Alabama over the Easter weekend. The prime threat will come from about 8:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Sunday. That part of Alabama along and south of I-20 is the highest risk area. Since we could have a tornado threat during the pre-dawn hours Sunday, we stress you need to have a NOAA Weather Radio, cell phone with E-Warn, or something else around to wake you up if tornado warnings are indeed needed.
TOMORROW: Another very warm day, with low 80s possible. We could see thunderstorms forming during the afternoon, and those could be severe. But, the main upper dyanmics come into play tomorrow night into early Sunday morning as a surface low deepens quickly near Greenville, Mississippi, moving northeast into Tennessee.
Model data shows the most unstable air over the southern half of Alabama, but a surface boundary near I-20 could serve as a focus for severe weather up this way. Steep lapse rates could mean very large hail in the stronger storms.
After instant message conferences with our staff and the NWS office over in Jackson (Jeff Craven on duty... he is really good with severe weather)... most of us believe this threat is more significant than the system that moved through earlier this week.
SPC continues a moderate risk of all of Alabama from Birmingham south for tomorrow and tomorrow night. The northern third of Alabama, north of the moderate risk, is in a slight risk.
SUNDAY: I am beginning to doubt my original idea of a second batch of storms Sunday evening. Models show hardly any instability now with low dewpoints moving in here Sunday afternoon. We will cling to the concept for now, but might take it out on the next forecast cycle for tomorrow morning. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms Sunday for all of Alabama.
The weather improves Monday and into the first half of next week... the next storm system is due in here at the end of next week.
Jeff Craven over at Jackson just gave us his ball park guess at this event for the entire southern U.S....
200-300 total reports of severe weather from TX to AL by early Sunday morning.
Lots of reports of Golfball hail and about a half dozen Baseballs.
15-20 tornadoes...with about half a dozen F2+.
That would verify as a high end moderate risk event. Remember, those numbers are NOT for only Alabama or Mississippi, but the entire southern U.S. And, that is just to give us an idea of what MIGHT happen. Do not hold him to those numbers!
I will try to post an update here between the 6:00 and the 10:00 news with more thoughts... have to get ready for the TV newscasts now on ABC 33/40!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Let me stress up front the prime message here:
We are setting up for a major threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across parts of Alabama over the Easter weekend. The prime threat will come from about 8:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Sunday. That part of Alabama along and south of I-20 is the highest risk area. Since we could have a tornado threat during the pre-dawn hours Sunday, we stress you need to have a NOAA Weather Radio, cell phone with E-Warn, or something else around to wake you up if tornado warnings are indeed needed.
TOMORROW: Another very warm day, with low 80s possible. We could see thunderstorms forming during the afternoon, and those could be severe. But, the main upper dyanmics come into play tomorrow night into early Sunday morning as a surface low deepens quickly near Greenville, Mississippi, moving northeast into Tennessee.
Model data shows the most unstable air over the southern half of Alabama, but a surface boundary near I-20 could serve as a focus for severe weather up this way. Steep lapse rates could mean very large hail in the stronger storms.
After instant message conferences with our staff and the NWS office over in Jackson (Jeff Craven on duty... he is really good with severe weather)... most of us believe this threat is more significant than the system that moved through earlier this week.
SPC continues a moderate risk of all of Alabama from Birmingham south for tomorrow and tomorrow night. The northern third of Alabama, north of the moderate risk, is in a slight risk.
SUNDAY: I am beginning to doubt my original idea of a second batch of storms Sunday evening. Models show hardly any instability now with low dewpoints moving in here Sunday afternoon. We will cling to the concept for now, but might take it out on the next forecast cycle for tomorrow morning. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms Sunday for all of Alabama.
The weather improves Monday and into the first half of next week... the next storm system is due in here at the end of next week.
Jeff Craven over at Jackson just gave us his ball park guess at this event for the entire southern U.S....
200-300 total reports of severe weather from TX to AL by early Sunday morning.
Lots of reports of Golfball hail and about a half dozen Baseballs.
15-20 tornadoes...with about half a dozen F2+.
That would verify as a high end moderate risk event. Remember, those numbers are NOT for only Alabama or Mississippi, but the entire southern U.S. And, that is just to give us an idea of what MIGHT happen. Do not hold him to those numbers!
I will try to post an update here between the 6:00 and the 10:00 news with more thoughts... have to get ready for the TV newscasts now on ABC 33/40!
Depending on you, Margie
on March 25, 2005, 3:46 pm
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