Friday night for me is almost like a vacation... I do not write the forecast package for Saturday morning (thanks to my friend Bill Murray), and I do not have to feed radio audio (I do weekend cuts for the 26 stations on the Friday afternoon feed, which is recorded Friday morning)... so I can really sit back, relax, study weather, or whatever I need to do (I must admit I am peeking at NCAA basketball tonight
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I have probably stared at over 200 maps tonight, and I am beginning to come to this theory... the most serious tornado threat will be over the central or south part of Alabama tomorrow night. The northern extent of the most serious risk is a line from Eutaw to Calera to Wedowee, with the southern extent along a line from Mobile to Evergreen to Eufala. I need to really stress we can have severe weather north of this area, but the dynamics and various severe weather parameters seem to really come together in that part of Alabama. Cities in that area include Demopolis, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Alexander City, and Lafayette.
Concerning timing, I still think the most organized severe storms will come sometime between 8:00 p.m. tomorrow and 8:00 a.m. Sunday. However, a few isolated severe storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon during the heat of the day. And, we still have the potential for one last batch of storms Sunday afternoon as the cold core trough passes overhead.
I would not be surprised if the SPC goes with a high risk of parts of south and central Mississippi and south and west Alabama on the new convective outlook for Saturday, which will be issued in a couple of hours.
We centainly don't want to alarm anyone. But, on the other hand, we want everyone to be in a position to hear tornado warnings tomorrow night and during the early morning hours Easter Sunday morning. A large percentage of Alabama homes do not have a NOAA Weather Radio, and for some reason people think they should rely on outdoor warning sirens to wake them up. Those sirens are designed to reach people outdoors, not indoors! Tomorrow will be a great day to get a Weather Radio receiver for your home. You can get them at electronic stores, and many major retail outlets carry them.
The other burden I have is for people who live in trailers. Even if they get the warning, they often do not have arrangements to get to a sturdy structure in the middle of the night. In the words of John Oldshue, tomorrow night be a good day to bake a cake, and take it to the person in the nearest site built home. Then, they are your new best friends and you are going to their place during the next tornado warning, whether it is 3:00 p.m. or 3:00 a.m.
The new 00Z data is rolling in... don't see much to change our thinking. I note the 200 mb winds could top 150 knots here during the event... about as high as they get.
We also notice the instability values really going up again by noon Sunday... the CAPE in Birmingham hits 2134! The concept of a second wave of storms might still be valid.
Our forecast staff... John Oldshue, Jason Simpson, J.B. Elliott, Bill Murray, David Black, Brian Peters, and other associates across the deep south will gather together again tomorrow morning at 8:00 for an instant message conference, and I will post some notes after we are finished in the morning. I am looking forward to getting some sleep and a little rest for the voice tonight...
.I have probably stared at over 200 maps tonight, and I am beginning to come to this theory... the most serious tornado threat will be over the central or south part of Alabama tomorrow night. The northern extent of the most serious risk is a line from Eutaw to Calera to Wedowee, with the southern extent along a line from Mobile to Evergreen to Eufala. I need to really stress we can have severe weather north of this area, but the dynamics and various severe weather parameters seem to really come together in that part of Alabama. Cities in that area include Demopolis, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Alexander City, and Lafayette.
Concerning timing, I still think the most organized severe storms will come sometime between 8:00 p.m. tomorrow and 8:00 a.m. Sunday. However, a few isolated severe storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon during the heat of the day. And, we still have the potential for one last batch of storms Sunday afternoon as the cold core trough passes overhead.
I would not be surprised if the SPC goes with a high risk of parts of south and central Mississippi and south and west Alabama on the new convective outlook for Saturday, which will be issued in a couple of hours.
We centainly don't want to alarm anyone. But, on the other hand, we want everyone to be in a position to hear tornado warnings tomorrow night and during the early morning hours Easter Sunday morning. A large percentage of Alabama homes do not have a NOAA Weather Radio, and for some reason people think they should rely on outdoor warning sirens to wake them up. Those sirens are designed to reach people outdoors, not indoors! Tomorrow will be a great day to get a Weather Radio receiver for your home. You can get them at electronic stores, and many major retail outlets carry them.
The other burden I have is for people who live in trailers. Even if they get the warning, they often do not have arrangements to get to a sturdy structure in the middle of the night. In the words of John Oldshue, tomorrow night be a good day to bake a cake, and take it to the person in the nearest site built home. Then, they are your new best friends and you are going to their place during the next tornado warning, whether it is 3:00 p.m. or 3:00 a.m.
The new 00Z data is rolling in... don't see much to change our thinking. I note the 200 mb winds could top 150 knots here during the event... about as high as they get.
We also notice the instability values really going up again by noon Sunday... the CAPE in Birmingham hits 2134! The concept of a second wave of storms might still be valid.
Our forecast staff... John Oldshue, Jason Simpson, J.B. Elliott, Bill Murray, David Black, Brian Peters, and other associates across the deep south will gather together again tomorrow morning at 8:00 for an instant message conference, and I will post some notes after we are finished in the morning. I am looking forward to getting some sleep and a little rest for the voice tonight...
on March 25, 2005, 10:07 pm
Thanks for the service you do, and after hours of being on the air tomorrow, know that you save lives.
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