The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the web, and available in iTunes:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
I will openly admit our group here has gone a horrible job on forecasting the coverage and placement on afternoon storms in the last five days. Back on Friday, the forecasts I put together (and even the ones by the legendary J.B. Elliott) had no mention of significant thunderstorm activity over the weekend. So what happens? Storms blow up Sunday afternoon in a few spots. As J.B. calls them, "illegal thunderstorms".
Then, on Sunday Bill Murray played up showers and storms for Monday, and yesterday during our 5:00 news there was only one puny shower across the entire northern half of the state, down in Clay County. Dry as a bone for 99.9 percent of the state during the afternoon.
Forecasting afternoon showers and storms on a summer day is no easy task, and I have yet to meet anyone (and I know a ton of people in this science) who doesn't struggle with it. It is one of the greatest forecast puzzles here across the Deep South.
LETS TRY AGAIN: Having said that, I really don't have a high confidence level in the afternoon storm forecast over the next five days. Maybe it is just a lack of confidence bacause of problems the last few days, but model solutions are all over the road. Just looking at the GFS will make your head spin; it shows strong ridging aloft, which would normally suggest mostly dry and hot weather, but it shows plenty of afternoon rain this week.
SO WHAT DO WE DO? In the movie "Anchorman", Ron Burgundy says "There's only one thing a man can do when he's suffering from a spiritual and existential funk.... buy new suits!". Here in the weather office, when we are in a summer funk, we don't buy new suits, we just "go with what you know". It is always safe in July in Alabama to mention heat, humidity, and a few widely scattered afternoon storms. We will pretty much roll with that for the rest of the week, and make changes as needed. There is ALWAYS a chance of an afternoon shower or storm this time of the year.. we just think they will be widely separated for the next few days.
We will reject the GFS MOS, which looks too wet and not hot enough. Mid 90s are likely in many areas by Thursday and Friday, and if the upper ridge indeed builds as expected, afternoon showers and storms will be widely spaced.
WEEKEND PEEK: The GFS does show the upper ridge shifting to the west by Sunday and early next week, which should mean a general increase in the coverage of afternoon showers and storms Sunday and Monday.
TROPICS: The wave over the Atlantic, east of the Windward Islands, doesn't look very healthy this morning. Lets see if it can maintain its identity as it gets into the Caribbean late this week. And, disturbed weather continues east of the Bahamas; this is mainly an upper trough. We do note the NAM develops something east of us, and moves a tropical low toward the Georgia coast by Friday. None of the other models are really on board with this idea for now.
ABC 33/40 SKYWATCHERS: We have built up a very nice team of volunteer storm spotters who will be helping us during times of severe weather; the Skywatchers communicate to us in real time using Instant Messaging technology. We still need Skywatchers, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. I would could really use volunteers in these counties: Sumter, Pickens, Greene, Hale, Perry, Marengo, Lamar, Coosa, Randolph, Blount, Winston, Cherokee, and Cullman. We are looking for people who preferably have had SKYWARN training, or have attended one of the ABC 33/40 Storm Alert XTREME shows in past years, that have a reliable Internet connection, and a digital camera (or digital video equipment).
Interested? Let me know! My e-mail address is jspann@abc3340.com
The next map discussion video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
I will openly admit our group here has gone a horrible job on forecasting the coverage and placement on afternoon storms in the last five days. Back on Friday, the forecasts I put together (and even the ones by the legendary J.B. Elliott) had no mention of significant thunderstorm activity over the weekend. So what happens? Storms blow up Sunday afternoon in a few spots. As J.B. calls them, "illegal thunderstorms".
Then, on Sunday Bill Murray played up showers and storms for Monday, and yesterday during our 5:00 news there was only one puny shower across the entire northern half of the state, down in Clay County. Dry as a bone for 99.9 percent of the state during the afternoon.
Forecasting afternoon showers and storms on a summer day is no easy task, and I have yet to meet anyone (and I know a ton of people in this science) who doesn't struggle with it. It is one of the greatest forecast puzzles here across the Deep South.
LETS TRY AGAIN: Having said that, I really don't have a high confidence level in the afternoon storm forecast over the next five days. Maybe it is just a lack of confidence bacause of problems the last few days, but model solutions are all over the road. Just looking at the GFS will make your head spin; it shows strong ridging aloft, which would normally suggest mostly dry and hot weather, but it shows plenty of afternoon rain this week.
SO WHAT DO WE DO? In the movie "Anchorman", Ron Burgundy says "There's only one thing a man can do when he's suffering from a spiritual and existential funk.... buy new suits!". Here in the weather office, when we are in a summer funk, we don't buy new suits, we just "go with what you know". It is always safe in July in Alabama to mention heat, humidity, and a few widely scattered afternoon storms. We will pretty much roll with that for the rest of the week, and make changes as needed. There is ALWAYS a chance of an afternoon shower or storm this time of the year.. we just think they will be widely separated for the next few days.
We will reject the GFS MOS, which looks too wet and not hot enough. Mid 90s are likely in many areas by Thursday and Friday, and if the upper ridge indeed builds as expected, afternoon showers and storms will be widely spaced.
WEEKEND PEEK: The GFS does show the upper ridge shifting to the west by Sunday and early next week, which should mean a general increase in the coverage of afternoon showers and storms Sunday and Monday.
TROPICS: The wave over the Atlantic, east of the Windward Islands, doesn't look very healthy this morning. Lets see if it can maintain its identity as it gets into the Caribbean late this week. And, disturbed weather continues east of the Bahamas; this is mainly an upper trough. We do note the NAM develops something east of us, and moves a tropical low toward the Georgia coast by Friday. None of the other models are really on board with this idea for now.
ABC 33/40 SKYWATCHERS: We have built up a very nice team of volunteer storm spotters who will be helping us during times of severe weather; the Skywatchers communicate to us in real time using Instant Messaging technology. We still need Skywatchers, ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. I would could really use volunteers in these counties: Sumter, Pickens, Greene, Hale, Perry, Marengo, Lamar, Coosa, Randolph, Blount, Winston, Cherokee, and Cullman. We are looking for people who preferably have had SKYWARN training, or have attended one of the ABC 33/40 Storm Alert XTREME shows in past years, that have a reliable Internet connection, and a digital camera (or digital video equipment).
Interested? Let me know! My e-mail address is jspann@abc3340.com
The next map discussion video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
on July 11, 2006, 6:36 am
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