A Raw Day

March 28, 2005, 6:05 am

Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 4.2/5 Votes : 5

The Monday morning web video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Today will be a chilly and damp day with temperatures struggling to reach the mid 50s. Hopefully we can see a little sun this afternoon.

Let me highlight up front the possibility of a late season freeze for some people around here Saturday morning. The GFS model output statistics is showing 35 degrees for Birmingham, and if this is correct the colder valleys could reach the upper 20s or low 30s. We will fine tune this number as we get closer to the weekend...

The chilly air on Friday and Satuday will roll in following a sharp cold front due in here late Thursday night. That front will feature the potential for a squall line with strong winds.

Lots of talk in the past 12 hours about the weekend storm system. It never lived up to its potential, and within the weather community there seems to be some finger pointing going on. SPC is taking some heat for the "PDS" tornado watches on Saturday evening that didn't exactly verify, and the tornado watch last night for east Alabama that featured only heavy rain showers.

And, the public is pointing fingers at us, accusing us of "crying wolf". Lots of Easter sunrise services were moved indoors, some people didn't go to church due to the weather threat, and there were plenty of folks on edge through the weekend due to the serious words used in defining the threat late last week.

Let me say up front the criticism is valid. We need to go back and look at why the event did not produce as much severe weather as expected, and SPC needs to do the same. There is no doubt this kind of thing could mean that warnings for the next serious threat will fall on deaf ears. And that is not good.

Having said all of that, those folks in Montgomery yesterday who had serious property damage from baseball size hail, and who watched an intensely rotating thunderstorm moving over the city on radar didn't call this event a bust. It is likely that tornado damage will be found today in parts of Lowndes and Montgomery counties today, but thankfully most of that serious damage was probably in wooded, non-populated areas.

The system over the weekend was extremely dynamic, with many, many severe weather parameters in place. We will take some time this week to look back at hundreds of maps and other data to see why the severe weather was more widespread.

Quite frankly, and some of you might call me crazy, I do believe in my heart one reason for the lack of severe weather was prayer. Read this message from a viewer, and I totally agree with this guy:

"I don't know if you remember me but, I emailed you once before about the power of prayer and the lack of tornadoes during potent weather situations. Once again, I have to give God the glory for what has taken place during this event. You have to admit that only the grace of God could have delivered us from all of the ingredients that were in place for a significant severe weather outbreak. I know there will be a lot of people who will say that weather forecasters made too big of a deal of of nothing but, I know that you report the facts and the potential of what can occur based on those facts. God can allow the obvious to occur based on those facts or he can chose to calm the winds. I'm not saying that my prayers hold any more weight than anyone else's but, once again I prayed that He would continue to be faithful in protecting us as He has the other times I have asked this same thing of Him. I know I was not alone in my prayers as I am quite certain that you and many others pray the same type of prayer whenever you see such dangerous data. I am just so thankful that all things must go through God before they are allowed to happen. That He is in control of all things. To God be the glory. "

He really has a point, and I am complete agreement. To all those who prayed for the safety of our state this weekend, I am thankful....

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 6:31 am

Just because you have a PDS Tornado Watch and a high risk situation does not necessarily mean EVERYONE will get severe weather that day. It happens all the time.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 7:46 am

I would much rather have the knowledge about what COULD happen, and know that I have my tornado plan ready to go JUST IN CASE, than to be caught off-guard by an approaching tornado. Having watched the storms explode in intensity over southern Mississippi and Louisiana Saturday afternoon, I didn't have a problem with a PDS Tornado Watch for our area. The instability simply got here too late. We should consider ourselves fortunate and blessed our weather didn't get that bad, and keep in mind the next time we might not be so fortunate. I do wish we would have received a bit more rainfall, which we are getting this morning. We are nearly 6 inches below normal for the year, and will take a mammoth flash-flooding event to get caught back up for the year.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 8:43 am

James,

We really appreciate all that you guys do for all of us. I would much rather be safe than sorry. I think a lot of people need to look back at the tornado that hit McDonald's Chapel and look at the devastation, but also the gratitude that the people of that area showed you and your team. I think that we would much rather spend a couple of hours paying special attention to the weather than not be aware of the situation at all and lose our lives or those of our loved ones. Keep up the good work.

Thanks!

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 9:16 am

I dont think with most people know what PDS is and when I go to job sites I have a small weather radio with me. People look at it and think its a walkie talkie. I tell them what it is, I hope they get one but, probaly not. Let a tornado hit thier house and they are the first one to want the government to get more involved. HEY FOLKS TAKE RESPONSABILITY FOR YOUR SELVES.

Also, I dont know what happened late Saturday near midnight but the wind picked up to around 50MPH in the Oak Grove area. I thought it was going to blow the wind sock away.

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Posted by Renee
on March 28, 2005, 9:25 am

One comment about the word 'risk' -- it shows a trend, that strong indicators are there based on the past. It does not mean that something is immenent or definite, but is highly possible. I would rather know and be prepared that be caught with the proverbial 'pants down'. Kudos, guys!

I, for one, fully agree with James and the emailer about the power of prayer. I happened to be one of the many doing it.

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Posted by www
on March 28, 2005, 10:15 am

First off, let me say thanks for the diligence all of you show. Thanks for gathering the facts and reporting the risks..that's your job and all do it well. I am concerned that many, many folks will take the "cry wolf" avenue and not pay attention next time, so I'm very glad to read that this issue is and will be addressed. Honesty is especially important in this day and age..so for ya'll to stand up and say..we didn't get it exactly right is wonderful to see! This is a volitale time of the year and things change quickly, we must not be lax in being the watcher on the wall. I also agree with the one who said God was in control..I believe He put all the cycles in motion and sometimes He allows those to go full circle..complete with loss of live and destruction..but sometimes He intervens for His purposes and the cycle does not fully play out. Regardless the outcome its all for His Glory not man's.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 10:25 am

I do not criticize the SPC nor any other of the meteorologists here who forcasted a moderate risk of severe weather. The parameters seemed to justify that.

I really was puzzled by the tornado watches yesterday, especially the one issued late in the afternoon. My children who are in elementary school even questioned that one. I wish the SPC would explain what they were thinking.

As a believer, I know God is sovereign. It is impossible for we mere humans to understand all the reasons why things happened the way they did 3/27/05 as opposed to 3/27/94. I think the best approach is to have faith and know all good and perfect gifts come from God. I certainly look at the lack of storms producing injury and death yesterday a manifestation of the grace of God; favor he bestowed upon us that we do not deserve.

I think John Wesley said that we should pray as though everything depends upon God and work as though everything depends upon us. I think God wants us to pray for safety. I also think he wants us to take precations and use the information at our disposal to stay safe. That is why I'm so thankful for the forecasts that you all give us.

No one cried wolf! The parameters were there. It's always better to be safe than sorry.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 10:55 am

I did cry "wolf".. or more accurately.. a "Pop! Fizzz". I was glad nothing happened. I was angry that I was made to worry and this possibility was never forwarded.

... but like James said above my "criticism is valid".

I also don�t think God micromanages our weather. If you think that God spared us, the flip side of that coin is that God allowed the tsunami or allowed the tornado to hit the church.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 10:59 am

Well I have to agree with James, I was out on the front sidewalk Saturday night when I saw the lightning to the south, And I was praying to god that he would calm the storms down and he did. So we can look back at the maps all we want but the thing is prayer works. So instead of finger pointing let's just thank god that he kept us safe. I know that the storms got bad down south but I don't think anybody got hurt again PRAYER WORKS.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 11:03 am

Well, God certainly had His hand on all of us. By looking at the dynamincs, you would think that there would have been much more severe weather than there was. I know that that the prayers of the people were heard by God, and it is only by His grace that we didn't have really bad weather.
Keep it up James! I greatly appreciate you guys in the ABC33/40 weather office. You guys are the best in the state.

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Posted by Sherry
on March 28, 2005, 11:10 am

GOD IS AN AWESOME GOD! ENOUGH SAID

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 11:14 am

BTW.. has anyone esle noticed how much James looks like the actor Ed Lauter who played Captain Knauer in the movie The Longest Yard?

Its uncanny..

I noticed it last night watching the storm special.

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Posted by Jared
on March 28, 2005, 11:35 am

To simply put it, prayer saved us from a pretty big outbreak of bad weather. Thanks to all the meteorologists and news anchors at abc 33/40, you guys are the best in the buisness. PS: The people complaining about programming being interupted, I find it more interesting to watch you guys. Keep up the good work and keep God in your heart! =D

-Jared- Hueytown

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 12:06 pm

I am very greatful that the weather here wasnt bad over the weekend. I was living at home with my parents when the tornado hit on Dec 16, 2000. Our house was destroyed and had to be completely torn down and rebuilt. We were at home sitting in the hall when it hit, but thankfully we had no injuries. The sirens started going off and I got in the hall and I thought "well, nothing is going to happen, it never does" so I didnt even put ant shoes on. My dad was standing on the back porch and saw it coming towards us from behind the water tower (Hillcrest Meadows) we were all praying and I KNOW that that is what saved us. I know I'm just rambling, but my point is NEVER think nothing will happen to you - because the 1 time you let your gaurd down may be the time when you should have listened to the warnings.
I thought it wouldnt happen to me and there I was homeless and shoeless :o)

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 12:15 pm

I honestly don't think God gets involved in this or that weather event. Weather is best understood by natural occuring weather conditions. And, we need to keep doing our best to better understand those hard to predict conditions. I don't think that the Asian Tusani was caused by anyone's lack of prayers just like I don't think the lack of severe weather was caused by prayers. But, obviously just an opinion.

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Posted by www
on March 28, 2005, 12:45 pm

James, thanks so much for agreeing with the opinion (not specifically but in concept) I stated throughout the second half of the weekend. It does not fall back on 33/40 and yes preyer helps, but there was something overlooked further up the line. We are all humans and humans make mistakes and one parameter or two probably made the difference. My concern was people blowing off the next one which scares me more than anything. You guys to a GREAT job!

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 1:45 pm

Hey Kyle I think you should rethink what you said in your comment, If it was not the prayers that kept us from having sevre weather than what was it? I mean it was by the grace of god that kept us safe. Like I said before you can look at the weather maps all day but the fact is prayer works. GOD is the one that controls the weather not the weather computers. You can sit and try to figure out why this did not happen if you want but I know why GOD.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 1:53 pm

Michael .. why didnt God answer the prayers of those in South Alabama where the weather was much worse? Are we somehow more important? Did no one there pray?

Do you seriously think God goes: "Ok.. Im gonna allow this tornado to blast through one of my churches and kill a bunch of my followers.. but for THIS weather attack... Im.. gonna spare central and North Alabama!"

Come on.. be reasonable.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 2:13 pm

Hey Scott YES I think god let's things happen the way it does, because sometimes people need a wake up call. I said it before and will say it again the reason we did not not get the severe weather is because there was at least a dozen or more people praying that it would not.

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Posted by ~
on March 28, 2005, 3:02 pm

It's how much faith or belief you have in God when you pray for help. If someone had the faith the size of a mustered seed, you could move a moutain! Bottom line nothing is to hard for God.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 3:05 pm

I agree fully with what you said, we all need to have faith.

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Posted by Dan
on March 28, 2005, 3:20 pm

If the weather is determined by God's will, then what exactly do we need a weather report for? Who cares about the CAPE or the NAM or the GFS? All we should care about is God's temper. And, maybe, instead of posting on ABC 3340's blog, we should all just sit in a circle, rub ointment on our bellies, and pray for partly sunny skies and 70 degree weather?

I'm a little disappointed in you, James. You're a SCIENTIST.

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Posted by Carol in Etowah County
on March 28, 2005, 3:38 pm

Dan and others, there are some people reading this blog and are being "witnessed to" by those of us who believe in God. It is our faith, our prayers, and our affirmation of God's glory that will move others toward God.

I, for one, am extremely thankful that James, and others at ABC 33/40 are believers.

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Posted by Bill
on March 28, 2005, 3:39 pm

Well put Dan. I think it's a cop-out to throw your hands in the air and say "well, we can't explain it, GOD must have done it!". We need to look for answers here - if all of the parameters were in place but we did not get severe weather then obviously we either had the wrong parameters or were not looking at parameters we should have been.

I also have to agree with Scott.. I cancelled plans Saturday night, because NO ONE raised the posibility we could get through unscathed. People (especially in the talk weather forums) were likening this even to April 8, 1998 and Nov 10 2002. So instead of taking my fiancee to dinner like I should have, we sat home watching absolutely NOTHING happen with the weather.

Several people I know did not go to church sunday morning because of this event. Was THAT God's will?

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Posted by Mike
on March 28, 2005, 3:43 pm

I see that temperatures won their "struggle" and have made it into the mid-60's here in Birmingham (rather than the mid-50's as predicted).

I'm really wondering about the weather forecasting these days...

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Posted by www
on March 28, 2005, 4:00 pm

I think they did a good job this weekend. It just goes to show there is still more to learn about these severe weather event. As I've said here in the past, the town I live in has taken damage from three (

un-warned severe weather events in the last three years, so I'm all for erring on the side of caution. I do agree that too much means it might fall on deaf ears next time. All in all there is still much to be learned.

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Posted by Carol in Etowah County
on March 28, 2005, 4:04 pm

Hi,

I would like to repeat my analogy of a surgeon. S/he tells you of all of the things that *could* happen during surgery. You have all probably heard of the risks of surgery. If you are intelligent you become aware of and take precautions not to be one of the statistics of one of the unlikely events. Plus, some of us pray.

Do we get angry at our medical professionals for those risks not happening? Of course not. But, they do tell us about them, just in case.

We (I) want to be informed about what might happen, and I thank God when it doesn't happen.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 4:15 pm

Hey Carol I agree with you fully, And as for Bill and Dan I think with out making you two mad I think you need to stop making negative comments when someone wants to say the reason the weather did not get severe is because of the prayers that went up. Weather computers can not say what will happen only GOD KNOWS what will happen.

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Posted by Mike Wilhelm
on March 28, 2005, 4:17 pm

It's not a cop out to say that we don't understand everything. I think that admitting that we don't understand everything is acknowledging that there are things bigger than ourselves.

I choose to look at life through a prism of faith in the God of the Bible. Just because there are limitations in what I know (and, as a human, capable of knowing) does not diminish the basic facts that God is soveriegn, loving, holy, pure, righteous, just, merciful, and good. Sometimes these things seem to be contradictary, but that is due to our limited understanding. Gods is bigger than our understanding.

God created this world and He is involved in this world. A lot of evil happens in the world. I'm looking forward to the day that God, in His great mercy, brings those that know Him and trust him into a perfect world.

I have friends that survived the 11-15-1989 Huntsville tornado, one of whom is still confined to a wheel chair. They are Christians. Honestly, the events of that day were a huge challenge to their faith. They, nevertheless, have decided that the tragedy of that day did not diminish the goodness of the God they serve.

To a person who hasn't taken the initial step of believing in your heart that Jesus is Lord, some of this is bound to be difficult to relate to. That's o.k. I just hope that if you haven't taken that step, that you would consider doing so. You will never regret it!

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 5:52 pm

Hey Mike well said.

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Posted by
on March 28, 2005, 9:15 pm

There is one thing that I am very thankful for...ABC 33/40. I am convinced they have one of the best weather teams in the country. Keep up the good work.

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Posted by www
on July 16, 2005, 5:09 am