Tropical Thoughts

Time for a quick break from doing nothing (I am on vacation this week) to looking at weather data. I am checking e-mail daily; if I don't there will be about 1,000 messages waiting for me on Monday that require a response. No, I am not spending lots of time with it, but just trying to knock out a few a day.

I have a pile (and I mean a big pile) of e-mails from people all across the southeast... asking for the opinion on tropical storm Chris.

So... here goes.

Gut feeling here, at this stage of the game, is that Chris remains south of Alabama, and will be a problem for Mexico or Texas.

The NOGAPS solution sure looks good to me.

I don't see how there can be much of a northward component of motion if the ridge north of the state stays intact, as forecast by most of the models.

I also think there will be some interaction with Cuba, which might hinder the system's ability to strengthen for a while, but I do think there is a reasonable chance the system will be a hurricane at the time of landfall.

Remember, there isn't much skill at forecasting a hurricane's landfall and strength days out,  so this is simply an idea.

I will actually be in Florida over the weekend; I am taking our 8 year old (to be 9 on Saturday) to see the Boston Red Sox play the Tampa Bay Devil Rays as a birthday gift. Might be some nervous folks down there, but I think this one won't be an issue for Tampa or most of Florida. Of course, time will tell.

Thanks again to the gang for covering all the bases this week; in the new digital world the work load is pretty exhausting with  blogs, podcasts, vodcasts, webcasts, radio, and TV. But, if it we didn't enjoy it we would not be here.

I will be back Monday August 7 and the regular schedule will resume as we get down to business for the core of the tropical season. I will probably share a few ideas between now and then here on the blog.... and I will post some pictures from Florida while we are there for the quick trip.