Another Severe Weather Threat?

The Monday afternoon web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Thanks for the Camp Fire Boys and Girls our at Clearview Baptist in Clay for having me this afternoon. Seems like everyone gets back into the regular school routine tomorrow after the long spring break. All good things must end!

UPCOMING ATTRACTIONS

*The sky is clearing nicely this afternoon, and looks like most places will go in the low 40s tonight. Some of the colder valleys will wind up in the 30s, but they should generally remain above freezing.

*Nice warm-up ahead, with 70s tomorrow, and most places around 80 by Wednesday. Dry air will mean ample sunshine on both days.

*Unfortunately, the 12Z model runs are suggesting another heavy rain and severe weather threat for Alabama later in the week. The prime risk seems to be from about 3:00 Thursday afternoon through 3:00 a.m. Friday. The latest NCEP QPF guidance shows about 3 inches for much of north-central Alabama. And, the GFS runs a strong surface low in roughly the same track as the one over the Easter weekend, with the low being near Muscle Shoals at midnight Thursday night. A very deep upper trough will support the surface system, and I am afraid many severe weather parameters will be in place. We will fine tune this tomorrow morning after looking at two new model runs.

*We will have some risk of a light freeze Saturday morning in the colder valleys of north and central Alabama. We have 35 in our forecast, but some cold spots could be closer to 30. I don't think this will be an especially damaging freeze, but it could hurt some of the tender plants trying to come to life here in early spring. The rest of the weekend ahead looks great with lots of sunshine and a warming trend.

I have a pile of e-mail and blog comments on the morning post... I will try to go through all of that this afternoon. Seems like many others agree with the idea of lots of prayers helping Alabama through a very dangerous weather event!