The Tuesday morning web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
What a beautiful day today; blue sky and sunshine with temperatures warming up into the upper 70s. Doesn't get much better than this.
COMING ATTRACTIONS
*TOMORROW should be dry and warm with temperatures into the low 80s. Then, moist air returns quickly tomorrow night and some rain could break out after midnight.
*MORE SEVERE STORMS? Another major spring storm system forms to the west of the state on Thursday, and we could very well have another significant severe weather threat on our hands. Rain and storms are likely on Thursday, perhaps during the morning, and then we expect a lull during the midday hours. The main round of active weather should arrive Thursday night into the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. If you had to pin me down now, the greatest risk of severe weather could come from 6:00 Thursday night to about 6:00 Friday morning. This, of course, could change.
With the new system, the surface low will pass from northwest Louisiana to north Mississippi and on into Tennessee, a little to the west of the track of the Easter Sunday storm. The upper trough will be deep, and the lapse rates will be steep. The low level jet (a few thousand feet off the surface) should be in the 40 to 50 knot range. That low level jet was really lacking in the Easter weekend system, it should be a little more robust this time.
Instability values rise to over 2000 j/kg over Alabama Thursday evening. The 0-1 km helicity values look a little on the low side now as the instability peaks. Way too early to nit-pick now; we will have a much better idea of how these parameters will play out by tomorrow evening as this system begins get its act together.
No doubt all of the players are on the field; just a matter of where they come together. SPC has defined a slight risk on day 3 (Thursday) from east Texas into Alabama, and they indicate an upgrade to a moderate risk for Thursday will take place on their forecast package tomorrow (they won't forecast anything past a slight risk on day 3).
Those of us in the weather office will have to be careful; after a severe weather threat that was somewhat of a "bust" a few days ago, human nature would tell us to back way off and not even mention severe weather this time. After all, you put your hand on a hot stove and get burned, you don't want to go back there again.
But, like in sports, you have to put the last game behind you and move on. Sure, learn from mistakes, but our job is to tell you what we think will happen, and that is what we will do on this event as we get closer to it.
*SATURDAY MORNING: The GFS MOS product has raised the low temperature forecast for Birmingham to 40 for Saturday morning. We had left the low forecast for now at 35, and we have mentioned some light frost for the valleys. I think most places will stay above freezing, however. Keep in mind this morning places like Anniston, Gadsden, and Talladega were in the mid 30s, so there is no doubt it could be that cold Saturday morning.
*THE LONG RANGE: After the system late this week, looks like the next severe weather threat will come sometime in the April 4-7 range.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
What a beautiful day today; blue sky and sunshine with temperatures warming up into the upper 70s. Doesn't get much better than this.
COMING ATTRACTIONS
*TOMORROW should be dry and warm with temperatures into the low 80s. Then, moist air returns quickly tomorrow night and some rain could break out after midnight.
*MORE SEVERE STORMS? Another major spring storm system forms to the west of the state on Thursday, and we could very well have another significant severe weather threat on our hands. Rain and storms are likely on Thursday, perhaps during the morning, and then we expect a lull during the midday hours. The main round of active weather should arrive Thursday night into the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. If you had to pin me down now, the greatest risk of severe weather could come from 6:00 Thursday night to about 6:00 Friday morning. This, of course, could change.
With the new system, the surface low will pass from northwest Louisiana to north Mississippi and on into Tennessee, a little to the west of the track of the Easter Sunday storm. The upper trough will be deep, and the lapse rates will be steep. The low level jet (a few thousand feet off the surface) should be in the 40 to 50 knot range. That low level jet was really lacking in the Easter weekend system, it should be a little more robust this time.
Instability values rise to over 2000 j/kg over Alabama Thursday evening. The 0-1 km helicity values look a little on the low side now as the instability peaks. Way too early to nit-pick now; we will have a much better idea of how these parameters will play out by tomorrow evening as this system begins get its act together.
No doubt all of the players are on the field; just a matter of where they come together. SPC has defined a slight risk on day 3 (Thursday) from east Texas into Alabama, and they indicate an upgrade to a moderate risk for Thursday will take place on their forecast package tomorrow (they won't forecast anything past a slight risk on day 3).
Those of us in the weather office will have to be careful; after a severe weather threat that was somewhat of a "bust" a few days ago, human nature would tell us to back way off and not even mention severe weather this time. After all, you put your hand on a hot stove and get burned, you don't want to go back there again.
But, like in sports, you have to put the last game behind you and move on. Sure, learn from mistakes, but our job is to tell you what we think will happen, and that is what we will do on this event as we get closer to it.
*SATURDAY MORNING: The GFS MOS product has raised the low temperature forecast for Birmingham to 40 for Saturday morning. We had left the low forecast for now at 35, and we have mentioned some light frost for the valleys. I think most places will stay above freezing, however. Keep in mind this morning places like Anniston, Gadsden, and Talladega were in the mid 30s, so there is no doubt it could be that cold Saturday morning.
*THE LONG RANGE: After the system late this week, looks like the next severe weather threat will come sometime in the April 4-7 range.
, but to also have a better understanding of our world around us. Being the "omni-nerd" that I am, I'd love to learn more about many of the weather models, how they work, and what the different numbers mean... What does it take (and mean) to become a storm spotter? If that's not the best route to take for the uber-curious, such as myself, can you recommend a "Weather for Dummies" type book that could make reading these discussions more meaningful? THANKS!
on March 29, 2005, 9:45 am
Is there a website that I can visit to view updated CAPE and SWEAT totals? I always find it interesting when you post the various severe weather parameters. Thanks.
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