The Tuesday afternoon web video update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Thanks to the kids over at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover.... I had a great time sharing the science of meteorology this afternoon.
On to upcoming weather attractions...
We will focus on the Thursday/Friday thunderstorm event this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a nice day, with a partly sunny sky along with temperatures into the low 80s in most places.
Looks like two main rounds of storms ahead... one will come Thursday morning as moisture surges northward, and a cold front associated with the lead short wave (which passes well to the north of us) approaches from the north. We really don't expect any severe weather with this first batch of storms, and most of that rain should be over by early afternoon Thursday.
The main threat of severe storms will come later, and the models continue to slow down the big system. At midday it looked like the greatest severe weather threat for Alabama would be sometime between midnight tomorrow night and 12:00 noon on Friday. And, as I type this, watching the new 18Z model data roll in I have to wonder if almost all of the strong storms will now hold off until during the day Friday.
And, the 18Z NAM is giving us a different surface look, moving the main surface low from Mobile to near Atlanta. This would produce little in the way of severe weather here, but it would set up a really good soaking on Friday. On this track, we also have to wonder if there might even be a few snow flurries on the back side of the low over far northeast Alabama Friday night as temperatures fall into the 30s. Gotta love these wild spring storm systems.
SO... after all of this, I am beginning to believe the greatest risk of heavy rain and strong storms will now come on Friday, between 3:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. And, if the latest NAM is correct, the severe weather threat will not be especially serious. BUT, that is just one model run, and the original surface low track would suggest a more significant threat.
As always, stay tuned for updates...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Thanks to the kids over at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover.... I had a great time sharing the science of meteorology this afternoon.
On to upcoming weather attractions...
We will focus on the Thursday/Friday thunderstorm event this afternoon. Tomorrow will be a nice day, with a partly sunny sky along with temperatures into the low 80s in most places.
Looks like two main rounds of storms ahead... one will come Thursday morning as moisture surges northward, and a cold front associated with the lead short wave (which passes well to the north of us) approaches from the north. We really don't expect any severe weather with this first batch of storms, and most of that rain should be over by early afternoon Thursday.
The main threat of severe storms will come later, and the models continue to slow down the big system. At midday it looked like the greatest severe weather threat for Alabama would be sometime between midnight tomorrow night and 12:00 noon on Friday. And, as I type this, watching the new 18Z model data roll in I have to wonder if almost all of the strong storms will now hold off until during the day Friday.
And, the 18Z NAM is giving us a different surface look, moving the main surface low from Mobile to near Atlanta. This would produce little in the way of severe weather here, but it would set up a really good soaking on Friday. On this track, we also have to wonder if there might even be a few snow flurries on the back side of the low over far northeast Alabama Friday night as temperatures fall into the 30s. Gotta love these wild spring storm systems.
SO... after all of this, I am beginning to believe the greatest risk of heavy rain and strong storms will now come on Friday, between 3:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. And, if the latest NAM is correct, the severe weather threat will not be especially serious. BUT, that is just one model run, and the original surface low track would suggest a more significant threat.
As always, stay tuned for updates...
on March 29, 2005, 4:29 pm
Reply to this comment