Busy Monday

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and also available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Wow... my first day back and I am already running behind. Been helping Mike Raita with some Internet business this afternoon and trying to catch up after being gone all last week. You can watch the video for the long story...

TOMORROW: No real change in the height fields or thermal profile... so more of the same. Afternoon temps peaking mostly in the mid 90s with only isolated afternoon showers or storms. Most places remain dry.

WEDNESDAY: Changes begin as the upper air high shifts to the west. The air aloft will be colder, and afternoon showers and storms should be a little more active.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: We will have a fairly decent chance of getting a decent coverage of afternoon showers and storms as the air aloft continues to cool slightly, and the main heat bubble moves well to the west. Don't get me wrong, the weather will be fairly hot and humid, but afternoon highs will be closer to 90, and where showers and storms develop there will be some nice temporary cooling in the afternoon and evening hours.

WEEKEND PEEK: The GFS tries to push a surface front down to near Montgomery on Sunday; not so sure that will happen. But, with a surface boundary meandering around here somewhere, scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms certainly have to be mentioned both Saturday and Sunday. Highs for the weekend should be in the low 90s, exactly normal for mid-August in Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: The old surface front washes out, and we will roll with the typical summer forecast for most of next week. Doesn't pay to be cute, trying to determine which days will have the best coverage of afternoon showers and storms this far in advance.

TROPICS: Our system in the middle of the Atlantic near 12.5N/43W still looks good, although convection is a bit limited today. I expect another nocturnal blowup tonight, and this will probably be upgraded to a tropical depression tomorrow. The models have shifted to the right on the 12Z run, and this might turn northwest into a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge late this week. For now looks like more of an open-Atlantic storm, or maybe one that gets close to the U.S. east coast. The system will also be fighting some dry and hostile upper air winds on the journey this week as well. Way early in the game so stay tuned....

Will make this one short... need to play some catch up. We will record a new WeatherBrains podcast tonight, and that should be posted early tomorrow morning. David Black has another interesting guest lined up this week... the topic will be the tropics. The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!