Wetter Pattern Coming

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Showers were non-existant across Central Alabama yesterday and it looks like the combination of slightly lower dewpoints plus a fairly strong cap aloft should keep us dry today.

The weather pattern begins to change on Sunday as a cold front approaches North Alabama from the northwest. The front should reach the Tennessee Vally area late tomorrow and then settle into Central Alabama on Monday. It will stay with us through the middle of the week, so we should see enhance chances for showers and thunderstorms with potentially 1 to 1.5 inches of rain across the area. Unfortunately, the character of the rain will remain in the form of showers, so not everyone is going to get wet every day, but it looks like there is a good possibility of getting widespread rain over several days.

Complicating the overall picture is the low that has been spinning off Jacksonville, FL, for several days now - actually nearly a week. That system has shown some increase in showers over the last 24 hours as it has drifted generally southwesterly. The various computer guidance tracks continue to suggest that it will continue southwest and cross Florida coming into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The GFS does not seem to pick up on any kind of surface low until Tuesday when a closed low is shown over Central Alabama. This could be the system east of Jacksonville merging with the front and rippling up to the northeast. No matter conditions aloft do not appear favorable for any kind of strong development, so it will probably remain just an area of showers and thunderstorms.

By Thursday, the frontal zone has sunk further south into extreme South Alabama giving us a break from the unsettled weather. Friday, the surface weather map takes on the appearance of a weak wedge. Wedges are hard enough to forecast in the next two days much less six days out, so we'll have to see. But the GFS suggests moisture coming back into Central Alabama as the frontal zone washes out. This will mean a return to daily showers as we head into next weekend.

Temperature-wise we should continue to see mid and upper 90s through Sunday but with a frontal zone in the area, more clouds and better chances of showers temperatures will moderate a bit with highs around 90 or so. By the end of the week, the upper air flow becomes southwesterly so we could return to the lower and mid 90s.

I expect to have another web video map discussion on the server tomorrow morning by 8 or so. I hope you have a great weekend - be sure to spend some time with your family.

-Brian-