The Friday morning map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
With the tropics becoming a big issue now, I do encourage you to watch the video if you have time; it really explains the concepts I write about. The video is available in both Quicktime and Windows Media format....
ERNESTO? Tropical depression five sure looks healthy as I write this during the early morning hours. Good CDO (central dense overcast), and nice outflow on the eastern side (westerly shear is impacting the western side of the system). If the system looks like this later this morning I am sure TPC will upgrade TD5 to tropical storm Ernesto.
Watch the video and see the water vapor satellite image... there is a vast amount of dry air ahead of the storm, part of the big Sahara dust layer that has covered much of "hurricane alley" this season. And, cloud elements in loops suggest westerly winds aloft will be near the system for a day or so; this westerly shear is also a big negative for strengthening.
We note some of the global models really ignore this system; for example the GFS never develops the thing and does not show anything in the Gulf of Mexico next week. We have to respect that; there is some chance the dry air and hostile winds aloft will bring an early end to this depression.
However, other models carry it through the Caribbean, through the Yucatan channel, and into the southern Gulf early next week. If this thing can survive (where is Gloria Gaynor when you need her), SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the Gulf are very toasty, and winds aloft look pretty favorable. The GFS shows a ULL (upper level low) in the southwest Gulf, which might help the upper ventilation process if it is far enough away from the system.
UH OH: The Canadian model has been all over this thing, and performed nicely during the past two years. The 12Z run from yesterday had the system coming ashore around Corpus Christi, Texas. The 00Z run from last night has shifted big time, and has the system coming into Panama City, Florida. It suggests a weakness in the ridge north of the system will pull it northward, toward the Florida panhandle. While i am not convinced this is correct, you have to give this model a good look due to its past performance. Remember, this thing could go into the northern coast of Mexico just as easily.
Everyone from Brownsville to Tampa Bay will have to monitor this closely... based on the general upper air pattern and climatology, the western half of the Gulf would seem to have the greatest threat, however. By that I am talking the Texas and Louisiana coasts. But, the Canadian run from last night sure makes you go HMMMMM. NOBODY knows the ultimate destination now, but we all like to speculate.
You can get the "official" TPC advisories over on our tropical page:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
THE ALABAMA STORY: The muggies return today to the northern part of the state. The higher dewpoints could lead to a few widely scattered afternoon showers and storms. The mercury should reach the low to mid 90s again.
THE WEEKEND: Partly sunny and hot weather for Alabama tomorrow and Sunday with the chance of scattered afternoon storms. Highs in the low 90s. Just what you expect in late August.
NEXT WEEK: The tropical system is the wild card... but to the north an approaching front should bring an enhanced risk of showers and storms toward the middle of the week. Of course, all eyes will be focused on developments to the south.
ONE YEAR AGO: Very interesting to go back to the blog one year ago as Katrina was getting ready to make the move toward the Gulf coast:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/calendar/wxtalk/26,08,2005
You can use the calendar feature and go back to any post here back to 2004 when we started this format. I stayed up way too late last night reading these old posts...
Long time readers know this blog is our primary way of communicating information on an immediate basis during active weather (when we are not on TV and the live stream
... so keep an eye on it in coming days as the buzz grows about the tropical trouble....
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon... stay tuned!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
With the tropics becoming a big issue now, I do encourage you to watch the video if you have time; it really explains the concepts I write about. The video is available in both Quicktime and Windows Media format....
ERNESTO? Tropical depression five sure looks healthy as I write this during the early morning hours. Good CDO (central dense overcast), and nice outflow on the eastern side (westerly shear is impacting the western side of the system). If the system looks like this later this morning I am sure TPC will upgrade TD5 to tropical storm Ernesto.
Watch the video and see the water vapor satellite image... there is a vast amount of dry air ahead of the storm, part of the big Sahara dust layer that has covered much of "hurricane alley" this season. And, cloud elements in loops suggest westerly winds aloft will be near the system for a day or so; this westerly shear is also a big negative for strengthening.
We note some of the global models really ignore this system; for example the GFS never develops the thing and does not show anything in the Gulf of Mexico next week. We have to respect that; there is some chance the dry air and hostile winds aloft will bring an early end to this depression.
However, other models carry it through the Caribbean, through the Yucatan channel, and into the southern Gulf early next week. If this thing can survive (where is Gloria Gaynor when you need her), SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the Gulf are very toasty, and winds aloft look pretty favorable. The GFS shows a ULL (upper level low) in the southwest Gulf, which might help the upper ventilation process if it is far enough away from the system.
UH OH: The Canadian model has been all over this thing, and performed nicely during the past two years. The 12Z run from yesterday had the system coming ashore around Corpus Christi, Texas. The 00Z run from last night has shifted big time, and has the system coming into Panama City, Florida. It suggests a weakness in the ridge north of the system will pull it northward, toward the Florida panhandle. While i am not convinced this is correct, you have to give this model a good look due to its past performance. Remember, this thing could go into the northern coast of Mexico just as easily.
Everyone from Brownsville to Tampa Bay will have to monitor this closely... based on the general upper air pattern and climatology, the western half of the Gulf would seem to have the greatest threat, however. By that I am talking the Texas and Louisiana coasts. But, the Canadian run from last night sure makes you go HMMMMM. NOBODY knows the ultimate destination now, but we all like to speculate.
You can get the "official" TPC advisories over on our tropical page:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
THE ALABAMA STORY: The muggies return today to the northern part of the state. The higher dewpoints could lead to a few widely scattered afternoon showers and storms. The mercury should reach the low to mid 90s again.
THE WEEKEND: Partly sunny and hot weather for Alabama tomorrow and Sunday with the chance of scattered afternoon storms. Highs in the low 90s. Just what you expect in late August.
NEXT WEEK: The tropical system is the wild card... but to the north an approaching front should bring an enhanced risk of showers and storms toward the middle of the week. Of course, all eyes will be focused on developments to the south.
ONE YEAR AGO: Very interesting to go back to the blog one year ago as Katrina was getting ready to make the move toward the Gulf coast:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/calendar/wxtalk/26,08,2005
You can use the calendar feature and go back to any post here back to 2004 when we started this format. I stayed up way too late last night reading these old posts...
Long time readers know this blog is our primary way of communicating information on an immediate basis during active weather (when we are not on TV and the live stream
... so keep an eye on it in coming days as the buzz grows about the tropical trouble....I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon... stay tuned!
on August 25, 2006, 6:37 am
Reply to this comment