The Friday afternoon map discussion video is coming shortly on the web and on iTunes:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Way behind schedule this afternoon; our 9 year old had a school birthday party I couldn't miss. Gotta take care of important things first, you know!
The video files are rendering now and should be up by 4:00 to 4:15. Sorry for the delay!
WILL TD5 SURVIVE? That is the big question... looks like the mass of storms now is removed from the center of circulation due to westerly shear aloft, and there is a big mass of very dry air ahead of the system. Dry air can take down a marginal tropical system in no time at all. TD5 will either be a fighter and a survivor, or it will go down to defeat. Almost like watching a boxing match.
To my knowledge there is no hurricane hunter missions scheduled for today; so we will have to watch satellite images for clues on the storm's structure this evening and tonight.
IF the system survives, most all of the models take it through the Yucatan channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Environmental conditions in the Gulf seem much more favorable for the system to get its act together. The GFDL brings the system to hurricane status (91 knots at 950 mb), and makes quite a turn to the right once in the Gulf, much like the Canadian model shift this morning. The latest run (12Z) of the Canadian brings the system to near Mobile Bay, but as a weak tropical storm.
The GFS is beginning to see TD5, and it brings it through the Gulf as a weak system, to the Florida panhandle and into southeast Alabama toward the middle of next week.
We note the GFS is showing more action in the mid-latitude westerlies, and which could indeed serve to weaken the ridge to the north of the system and mean more of a threat for the central Gulf coast IF this thing hangs on.
It is simply too early for anyone to call a landfall point, everyone from Brownsville all the way around the horn to St. Petersburg will just have to watch and watch developments over the weekend. Lots of nail-biting going on.
Gut feeling after pouring over data this afternoon is still centered over Louisiana, and maybe the Mississippi/Alabama stretch. But you don't forecast the weather based on feelings, and that is no forecast. Lets wait until we have some skill in picking a landfall point using good science, and that probably won't come until early next week.
AROUND HERE: Hot and muggy weather for the weekend with sun at times, and the risk of a few scattered afternoon storms tomorrow and Sunday. Highs in the low 90s for most places.
NEXT WEEK: A front approaching from the north should enhance the coverage of showers and storms, especially toward mid-week. And, of course, the wild card is the potential system in the Gulf.
MAYFIELD RETIRES: See the story over on WeatherParty.com:
http://www.weatherparty.com/
Brian Peters is camping up on Cheaha this weekend; if he can't do video from up there I will try to crank out a video tomorrow and Sunday morning since interest is rather intense in the tropical system.....
Have a great weekend!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Way behind schedule this afternoon; our 9 year old had a school birthday party I couldn't miss. Gotta take care of important things first, you know!
The video files are rendering now and should be up by 4:00 to 4:15. Sorry for the delay!
WILL TD5 SURVIVE? That is the big question... looks like the mass of storms now is removed from the center of circulation due to westerly shear aloft, and there is a big mass of very dry air ahead of the system. Dry air can take down a marginal tropical system in no time at all. TD5 will either be a fighter and a survivor, or it will go down to defeat. Almost like watching a boxing match.
To my knowledge there is no hurricane hunter missions scheduled for today; so we will have to watch satellite images for clues on the storm's structure this evening and tonight.
IF the system survives, most all of the models take it through the Yucatan channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Environmental conditions in the Gulf seem much more favorable for the system to get its act together. The GFDL brings the system to hurricane status (91 knots at 950 mb), and makes quite a turn to the right once in the Gulf, much like the Canadian model shift this morning. The latest run (12Z) of the Canadian brings the system to near Mobile Bay, but as a weak tropical storm.
The GFS is beginning to see TD5, and it brings it through the Gulf as a weak system, to the Florida panhandle and into southeast Alabama toward the middle of next week.
We note the GFS is showing more action in the mid-latitude westerlies, and which could indeed serve to weaken the ridge to the north of the system and mean more of a threat for the central Gulf coast IF this thing hangs on.
It is simply too early for anyone to call a landfall point, everyone from Brownsville all the way around the horn to St. Petersburg will just have to watch and watch developments over the weekend. Lots of nail-biting going on.
Gut feeling after pouring over data this afternoon is still centered over Louisiana, and maybe the Mississippi/Alabama stretch. But you don't forecast the weather based on feelings, and that is no forecast. Lets wait until we have some skill in picking a landfall point using good science, and that probably won't come until early next week.
AROUND HERE: Hot and muggy weather for the weekend with sun at times, and the risk of a few scattered afternoon storms tomorrow and Sunday. Highs in the low 90s for most places.
NEXT WEEK: A front approaching from the north should enhance the coverage of showers and storms, especially toward mid-week. And, of course, the wild card is the potential system in the Gulf.
MAYFIELD RETIRES: See the story over on WeatherParty.com:
http://www.weatherparty.com/
Brian Peters is camping up on Cheaha this weekend; if he can't do video from up there I will try to crank out a video tomorrow and Sunday morning since interest is rather intense in the tropical system.....
Have a great weekend!
on August 25, 2006, 3:18 pm
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