NOTE: To keep us from having to repeat so much information, please scroll down to see the official 4 pm advisory (CDT) from the National Hurricane Center. It has a list of all the watches and warnings as well as the latest position report, winds, pressure, you name it.
We want to discuss the future path with the usual caution that some of this discussion is for late next week and the track error can easily be 250 miles or more off.
* Tropical Storm Ernesto (sustained winds now down to 60 mph) should regain hurricane status before making landfall on the SE coast of Cuba before daybreak tomorrow. He will again weaken to a tropical storm (see paragraph below about Cuban topography)
* Mr. Ernesto will remain over Cuba for quite a distance emerging off the north coast Tuesday afternoon not too far east of Havana.
* Should again regain hurricane status as he moves NW into the SE Gulf of Mexico and passes near Key West Tuesday night.
* Then it is northward over the Extreme East Gulf and not far off the SW Coast of Florida with a projected landfall near the St. Petersburg-Tampa area Wednesday afternoon.
* Then, a curve to the NNE passing across North Florida, maybe near Ocala and Gainesville and finally to Jacksonville by Thursday afternoon. Across most of North Florida, he will weaken to a tropical storm.
* Finally, still a tropical storm, Ernesto will pass near Savannah and Charleston late Thursday and Friday.
CUBAN TOPOGRAPHY
The east and SE part of Cuba where Ernesto will visit first is very mountainous. The Sierra Maestra Mountains are in that area. The highest elevation in Cuba is over 6,500 feet (for comparison, Mount Cheaha, the highest point in Alabama, is 2,047 feet). He will still have some more mountains to pass through in the very center of Cuba and some of those seem to have elevations of 3-5 thousand feet. We are saying all this because we do not know how much the land friction in those areas will tear apart Ernesto.
He should regain hurricane status between the north coast of Cuba and the Florida Keys.
ALABAMA EFFECTS
If the projected path is correct, we should have no real problems in Alabama. Along the coast there will be the usual scattered showers and thunderstorms Other places like Pensacola, Ft. Walton, Destin and Panama City should not be greatly affected either.
Governor Jebb Bush of Florida has declared a state of emergency for Florida due to the anticipation of Ernesto. A mandatory evacuation for tourists and visitors in the Florida Keys has also been ordered. U.S. Highway 1 leading from Key West north to the mainland should be relatively easy travel through much of Monday and part of Tuesday (other than heavy traffic like our own US-280).
LATE AFTERNOON SPOT REPORTS
Quantimo Bay Naval Station...wind east averaging 17 mph
Port au Prince, Haiti...heavy rain (not a recent report, several hours old)
Key West...mostly sunny, east at 10
Marathon (in the Florida Keys)...sunny, east 10, gusts 16
Long Key...wind east at 9
Miami...mostly sunny, wind SE at 14
FINAL CAUTION
Again, do not put all your eggs in one basket concerning the projected track. Even within 24-36 hours there could be a lot of changes. One thing that adds credence, however, is the fact that almost all of the hurricane models agree closely with the NHC track forecast. That is fairly unusual.
We want to discuss the future path with the usual caution that some of this discussion is for late next week and the track error can easily be 250 miles or more off.
* Tropical Storm Ernesto (sustained winds now down to 60 mph) should regain hurricane status before making landfall on the SE coast of Cuba before daybreak tomorrow. He will again weaken to a tropical storm (see paragraph below about Cuban topography)
* Mr. Ernesto will remain over Cuba for quite a distance emerging off the north coast Tuesday afternoon not too far east of Havana.
* Should again regain hurricane status as he moves NW into the SE Gulf of Mexico and passes near Key West Tuesday night.
* Then it is northward over the Extreme East Gulf and not far off the SW Coast of Florida with a projected landfall near the St. Petersburg-Tampa area Wednesday afternoon.
* Then, a curve to the NNE passing across North Florida, maybe near Ocala and Gainesville and finally to Jacksonville by Thursday afternoon. Across most of North Florida, he will weaken to a tropical storm.
* Finally, still a tropical storm, Ernesto will pass near Savannah and Charleston late Thursday and Friday.
CUBAN TOPOGRAPHY
The east and SE part of Cuba where Ernesto will visit first is very mountainous. The Sierra Maestra Mountains are in that area. The highest elevation in Cuba is over 6,500 feet (for comparison, Mount Cheaha, the highest point in Alabama, is 2,047 feet). He will still have some more mountains to pass through in the very center of Cuba and some of those seem to have elevations of 3-5 thousand feet. We are saying all this because we do not know how much the land friction in those areas will tear apart Ernesto.
He should regain hurricane status between the north coast of Cuba and the Florida Keys.
ALABAMA EFFECTS
If the projected path is correct, we should have no real problems in Alabama. Along the coast there will be the usual scattered showers and thunderstorms Other places like Pensacola, Ft. Walton, Destin and Panama City should not be greatly affected either.
Governor Jebb Bush of Florida has declared a state of emergency for Florida due to the anticipation of Ernesto. A mandatory evacuation for tourists and visitors in the Florida Keys has also been ordered. U.S. Highway 1 leading from Key West north to the mainland should be relatively easy travel through much of Monday and part of Tuesday (other than heavy traffic like our own US-280).
LATE AFTERNOON SPOT REPORTS
Quantimo Bay Naval Station...wind east averaging 17 mph
Port au Prince, Haiti...heavy rain (not a recent report, several hours old)
Key West...mostly sunny, east at 10
Marathon (in the Florida Keys)...sunny, east 10, gusts 16
Long Key...wind east at 9
Miami...mostly sunny, wind SE at 14
FINAL CAUTION
Again, do not put all your eggs in one basket concerning the projected track. Even within 24-36 hours there could be a lot of changes. One thing that adds credence, however, is the fact that almost all of the hurricane models agree closely with the NHC track forecast. That is fairly unusual.