Here is the latest on Ernesto at 10 p.m.
LOCATION...18.6N 74.7W...115 SSE of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
MOVEMENT...NW-7
MAX WINDS...50 mph
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 millibars (29.65 inches)
The strom should intensify slightly overnight, likely peaking at 70 mph before it reaches eastern Cuba tomorrow morning. It will then begin the transit across the island nation, slowly weakening as the mountainous terrain takes it s toll on the circulation. The storm is taking a more northwesterly track now, which will lessen the time over land. This means the weakening will be less pronounced.
Consequently, the storm should be a strong tropical storm when it emerges off the north coast of Cuba late Monday night. It will then cut across the warm waters of the Florida Straits, which will allow it to reintensify. Fortunately, it will not have much time. It should reach the middle Florida Keys around midnight Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. By that time, it will be turning to a more northerly course. It will make landfall near Naples after crossing Florida Bay.
Hurricane force winds will be felt near the center as it passes across the Keys and Southwest Florida.
It will pass near Fort Myers then curve northeastward, passing near Orlando and exiting the coast near St. Augustine. It will parallel the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, passing near Savannah. BY Friday evening, it will be near New Bern on the North Carolina coast, heading northeast. It will likely be a tropical storm all along the way.
Now, give or take an increasing number of miles either side of that skinny black line I described, and you have the projected track of Ernesto. The cone of uncertainty has now shifted to Panama City on the west, good news for much of the NW Florida coast, as well as points west. There is a small chance it could turn north quickly enough to miss Florida altogether, although that seems unlikely.
The storm's impact on Alabama will be minimal, just some drier and slightly cooler air that will flow in as the storm passes to our east.
LOCATION...18.6N 74.7W...115 SSE of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
MOVEMENT...NW-7
MAX WINDS...50 mph
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 millibars (29.65 inches)
The strom should intensify slightly overnight, likely peaking at 70 mph before it reaches eastern Cuba tomorrow morning. It will then begin the transit across the island nation, slowly weakening as the mountainous terrain takes it s toll on the circulation. The storm is taking a more northwesterly track now, which will lessen the time over land. This means the weakening will be less pronounced.
Consequently, the storm should be a strong tropical storm when it emerges off the north coast of Cuba late Monday night. It will then cut across the warm waters of the Florida Straits, which will allow it to reintensify. Fortunately, it will not have much time. It should reach the middle Florida Keys around midnight Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. By that time, it will be turning to a more northerly course. It will make landfall near Naples after crossing Florida Bay.
Hurricane force winds will be felt near the center as it passes across the Keys and Southwest Florida.
It will pass near Fort Myers then curve northeastward, passing near Orlando and exiting the coast near St. Augustine. It will parallel the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, passing near Savannah. BY Friday evening, it will be near New Bern on the North Carolina coast, heading northeast. It will likely be a tropical storm all along the way.
Now, give or take an increasing number of miles either side of that skinny black line I described, and you have the projected track of Ernesto. The cone of uncertainty has now shifted to Panama City on the west, good news for much of the NW Florida coast, as well as points west. There is a small chance it could turn north quickly enough to miss Florida altogether, although that seems unlikely.
The storm's impact on Alabama will be minimal, just some drier and slightly cooler air that will flow in as the storm passes to our east.