Florence Now on the Scene

September 5, 2006, 10:11 am
Posted by J.B. Elliott in Tropical Weather
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
It took only a small amount of growth for TD No. 6 to become Tropical Storm Florence but that is what happened as outlined in the 10 am, CDT advisory. Basic facts:

* Center near Latitude 13.3N...Longitude 47.3W
* Translation: 935 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
* Moving west 12 mph
* Highest sustained winds 40 mph
* Should slowly get stronger
* Expected to pass well north of Puerto Rico Friday/Saturday
* Every tropical model says she will not touch the USA (Little too early to be 100% certain)
* She should curve more to the NW, then north and finally NE
* Eventual path off Nova Scotia
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Posted by Austin  
on September 5, 2006, 10:35 am
I'm not sure I say "every tropical model says she will not touch the USA". Most all the models I know of do not go past 5-6 days but the GFS. NHC only goes out 5 days too and it puts it at 25.5N 67.5W. So I'm not exactly sure why you said every tropical model has this missing the USA. And if you can find me a model that can accurately predict anything 10 days out then I have about 1 million dollars I want to give you.

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Posted by Jules  
on September 5, 2006, 11:36 am
Agreed.

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Posted by James Spann  
on September 5, 2006, 11:45 am
Gents...

The GFS, the Canadian GEMS, and the Euro (ECMWF) all are in excellent agreement in the medium range with Florence remaining east of the U.S. coast. J.B. is right on the money. Does it mean they are all correct? Of course not. But, the pattern, teleconnections, and climatology all support the idea of this not reaching the U.S. coast.

If you guys leave your e-mail addresses next time I will be glad to forward links to this data.

James Spann

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Posted by  
on September 5, 2006, 12:21 pm
I believe "N'UFF SAID" is appropriate here.

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Posted by John T.  
on September 5, 2006, 6:47 pm
Getting all the experts putting in their 2 cents . Tropical and winter wx . What is it in these 2 that bring out the dang-it , what-was-that-all-about in folks . People ask yourselves , how long has JB , James, and the rest been doing this ?? A lot longer than most of us back seat weather geaks . Who was it that said , "daddy says shhhhh."

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