The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Be sure and scroll down and read J.B.'s post on the all time record high for Alabama (112 in Centreville on September 5, 1925).
NOT THIS YEAR: No record highs for Alabama on September 5, 2006. In fact, most spots are only in the 70s as I write this update; here are some observations from our SKYCAM network:
Inverness 77
Mt. Cheaha 77
Gadsden 77
Hamilton 78
Birmingham 78
Tuscaloosa 79
Jasper 81
Demopolis 83
Gulf Shores 85
We can thank clouds for the cooler daytime temperatures today. Tonight, as the cloud move out and drier air moves in, we will drop off pretty quickly, and there is a good chance many communities will reach the upper 50s. That will be a great preview of fall, and Thursday morning should be about as cool. Daytime conditions will be very nice tomorrow and Thursday with ample sunshine and low humidity levels.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Moist air will return to Alabama by Friday and the weekend, and I think you have to mention some risk of a shower each day. However, there will be little in the way of dynamic forcing, and the showers should be widely spaced. So, rain not a big issue for the weekend, but just keep in mind a few of them might show up on radar during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will stay in the 80s, but the humidity levels will be on the rise.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS shows a strong cold front moving through here Tuesday of next week; if that is correct we should have a decent chance at showers and storms on Tuesday, perhaps followed by the coolest air since the spring. That airmass just might get some of the cooler valleys in the upper 40s toward the latter half of next week, or about 8 to 9 days from now. Bring it on!
FLORENCE: Tropical Storm Florence is moving to the northwest through the middle of the Atlantic; no real change in the NHC track or our thinking. The global models (GFS, GEMS, ECMWF) are in amazing agreement next week that this system will miss the east coast of the U.S., but will be a big problem for the Canadian Maritimes around the middle part of next week. Of course, this can change, but the model agreement gives some degree of confidence to the solution. One way or another Florence won't bother the Gulf of Mexico.
OTHER TROPICAL ISSUES: We have a good looking wave trailing Florence in the eastern Atlantic; this one has the potential to become a tropical depression at any time. This system is lower in latitude, so a track to the Caribbean cannot be ruled out if it survives and develops. Another wave is in the central Caribbean with no sign of any serious development for the moment.
WEATHER BRAINS: A reminder an all new episode of WeatherBrains was posted last night... and features some really good interviews, including one with Bill Gray:
http://www.weatherbrains.com
Kudos to David Black for his hard work on the show.
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Be sure and scroll down and read J.B.'s post on the all time record high for Alabama (112 in Centreville on September 5, 1925).
NOT THIS YEAR: No record highs for Alabama on September 5, 2006. In fact, most spots are only in the 70s as I write this update; here are some observations from our SKYCAM network:
Inverness 77
Mt. Cheaha 77
Gadsden 77
Hamilton 78
Birmingham 78
Tuscaloosa 79
Jasper 81
Demopolis 83
Gulf Shores 85
We can thank clouds for the cooler daytime temperatures today. Tonight, as the cloud move out and drier air moves in, we will drop off pretty quickly, and there is a good chance many communities will reach the upper 50s. That will be a great preview of fall, and Thursday morning should be about as cool. Daytime conditions will be very nice tomorrow and Thursday with ample sunshine and low humidity levels.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Moist air will return to Alabama by Friday and the weekend, and I think you have to mention some risk of a shower each day. However, there will be little in the way of dynamic forcing, and the showers should be widely spaced. So, rain not a big issue for the weekend, but just keep in mind a few of them might show up on radar during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will stay in the 80s, but the humidity levels will be on the rise.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS shows a strong cold front moving through here Tuesday of next week; if that is correct we should have a decent chance at showers and storms on Tuesday, perhaps followed by the coolest air since the spring. That airmass just might get some of the cooler valleys in the upper 40s toward the latter half of next week, or about 8 to 9 days from now. Bring it on!
FLORENCE: Tropical Storm Florence is moving to the northwest through the middle of the Atlantic; no real change in the NHC track or our thinking. The global models (GFS, GEMS, ECMWF) are in amazing agreement next week that this system will miss the east coast of the U.S., but will be a big problem for the Canadian Maritimes around the middle part of next week. Of course, this can change, but the model agreement gives some degree of confidence to the solution. One way or another Florence won't bother the Gulf of Mexico.
OTHER TROPICAL ISSUES: We have a good looking wave trailing Florence in the eastern Atlantic; this one has the potential to become a tropical depression at any time. This system is lower in latitude, so a track to the Caribbean cannot be ruled out if it survives and develops. Another wave is in the central Caribbean with no sign of any serious development for the moment.
WEATHER BRAINS: A reminder an all new episode of WeatherBrains was posted last night... and features some really good interviews, including one with Bill Gray:
http://www.weatherbrains.com
Kudos to David Black for his hard work on the show.
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
on September 5, 2006, 2:45 pm
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