The Monday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We will focus most of our attention today on the mid-week system. We should be able to squeeze in one more pleasant day tomorrow, with sunshine through high clouds and temperatures not too far from 80 by afternoon.
A deep upper low is forecast to move from northwest Oklahoma tomorrow to northwest Arkansas on Wednesday, with somewhat of a negative tilt trough extending this way. A surface boundary will bring a round of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening. Model data suggests a relatively unstable airmass (SBCAPE around 750 here by midday Wednesday) in place with nice shear in the lower 3 km of the atmosphere (helicity around 400). But, the wind fields are somewhat marginal (200 mb winds only 75 kts or so). Like I mentioned this morning, we will wait until tomorrow morning to really get specific. But, for now, it looks like there will be a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday from about 2:00 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. The storms will be arriving at a time when the air will be most unstable.
The latest QPF guidance suggests about one inch of rain here with the storms, and that should not be enough to bring a big flash flood threat.
The upper low will pass slowly over Tennessee on Thursday, so clouds and some light rain are a good bet. Friday should feature gradual clearing, and the weekend ahead looks dry and pleasant.
Based on the 12Z GFS, the systems due in here in about a week (around April 11), and around April 17, don't look like they will bring much of a severe weather threat, but that can change. After all, this is April in Alabama!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We will focus most of our attention today on the mid-week system. We should be able to squeeze in one more pleasant day tomorrow, with sunshine through high clouds and temperatures not too far from 80 by afternoon.
A deep upper low is forecast to move from northwest Oklahoma tomorrow to northwest Arkansas on Wednesday, with somewhat of a negative tilt trough extending this way. A surface boundary will bring a round of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening. Model data suggests a relatively unstable airmass (SBCAPE around 750 here by midday Wednesday) in place with nice shear in the lower 3 km of the atmosphere (helicity around 400). But, the wind fields are somewhat marginal (200 mb winds only 75 kts or so). Like I mentioned this morning, we will wait until tomorrow morning to really get specific. But, for now, it looks like there will be a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday from about 2:00 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. The storms will be arriving at a time when the air will be most unstable.
The latest QPF guidance suggests about one inch of rain here with the storms, and that should not be enough to bring a big flash flood threat.
The upper low will pass slowly over Tennessee on Thursday, so clouds and some light rain are a good bet. Friday should feature gradual clearing, and the weekend ahead looks dry and pleasant.
Based on the 12Z GFS, the systems due in here in about a week (around April 11), and around April 17, don't look like they will bring much of a severe weather threat, but that can change. After all, this is April in Alabama!
on April 4, 2005, 8:12 pm
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