The Tuesday morning web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Most of our attention will be focused on the storm system that will begin to affect the state tomorrow. Today will be dry and warm with temperatures rising into the upper 70s, maybe touching 80 in spots.
A rather deep upper low will move along I-40 during the next 48 hours from the Texas panhandle to eastern Oklahoma, and the latest model runs move the initial band of showers and storms into west Alabama by mid to late afternoon tomorrow. The air will be relatively unstable, and low level shear values certainly support the possibility of severe storms. But, wind fields are not very impressive (850 mb winds 20-30 kts, 250 mb winds 50-75 knots), and I really don't expect a major outbreak. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow. In the event wind fields are stronger than forecast, and the WRF CAPE and helicity values verify, the threat could be more significant.
Rain could be heavy; the NAM extraction shows 1.93" of rain tomorrow and Thursday. The GFS shows 1.32".
Both models are showing warmer temperatures than we have in our forecast for Thursday. If we see some sunshine, and if temperatures rise into the low 70s as suggested by the models, we might have some convection going on Thursday, and with very cold air aloft we might have to deal with some hail. So, I will probably amend the Thursday forecast to reflect warmer temperatures and the chance of showers and storms as opposed to light rain.
The clearing on Friday might be slow, and might be delayed until Friday night if the latest model data is coorect. Then, we can enjoy a very nice weekend with ample sunshine and temperatures in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: The latest GFS slows down the next system a good bit, and is now holding off the rain until Wednesday of next week. If the model is correct, we could very well have rain Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, April 13-15. This looks like more of a heavy rain threat instead of a severe weather threat.
Busy day today... will wind up seeing the kids at Briarood Christian at 1:00 this afternoon for a weather program. Be back in the office for the afternoon update after that...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Most of our attention will be focused on the storm system that will begin to affect the state tomorrow. Today will be dry and warm with temperatures rising into the upper 70s, maybe touching 80 in spots.
A rather deep upper low will move along I-40 during the next 48 hours from the Texas panhandle to eastern Oklahoma, and the latest model runs move the initial band of showers and storms into west Alabama by mid to late afternoon tomorrow. The air will be relatively unstable, and low level shear values certainly support the possibility of severe storms. But, wind fields are not very impressive (850 mb winds 20-30 kts, 250 mb winds 50-75 knots), and I really don't expect a major outbreak. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow. In the event wind fields are stronger than forecast, and the WRF CAPE and helicity values verify, the threat could be more significant.
Rain could be heavy; the NAM extraction shows 1.93" of rain tomorrow and Thursday. The GFS shows 1.32".
Both models are showing warmer temperatures than we have in our forecast for Thursday. If we see some sunshine, and if temperatures rise into the low 70s as suggested by the models, we might have some convection going on Thursday, and with very cold air aloft we might have to deal with some hail. So, I will probably amend the Thursday forecast to reflect warmer temperatures and the chance of showers and storms as opposed to light rain.
The clearing on Friday might be slow, and might be delayed until Friday night if the latest model data is coorect. Then, we can enjoy a very nice weekend with ample sunshine and temperatures in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: The latest GFS slows down the next system a good bit, and is now holding off the rain until Wednesday of next week. If the model is correct, we could very well have rain Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, April 13-15. This looks like more of a heavy rain threat instead of a severe weather threat.
Busy day today... will wind up seeing the kids at Briarood Christian at 1:00 this afternoon for a weather program. Be back in the office for the afternoon update after that...
on April 5, 2005, 7:46 am
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