The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
DRY WEEKEND: Still no change in our thinking for today and the weekend. Dry weather with a warming trend; we will be in the upper 80s tomorrow and close to 90 by Sunday afternoon. Nights will remain pleasant.
While we enjoy the nice weather here, we will watch the big storm over the northwest U.S. bring the first big snow of the season to the northern Rocky Mountain region; some of the high terrain locations could see up to one foot of snow over the weekend. The GFS is trending deeper on that storm, and it maintains a vigorous system near the U.S./Canadian border early next week.
That system will swing a cold front down into Alabama, and with the better dynamics we will now have to look at mentioning some risk of strong to severe storms, and locally heavy rain. Looks like our best chance of rain and storms will come from about midday Monday through midday Tuesday, and SPC has now included the western part of the state in a severe weather risk (that risk for Monday runs from about Houston to Huntsville; see the video for more). Rainfall amounts of one to two inches can be expected as well. The key to the severe weather risk will be the surface based instability; if we can get some sunshine Monday then the weather could be pretty active here by the late afternoon and nighttime hours.
Keep an eye on the blog over the weekend and we will keep you posted about this threat.
Drier and cooler air will flow in here following the stormy weather, and by Wednesday of next week the GFS MOS is suggesting a high of 78 and a low of 56 for Birmingham with a clear sky. Sure sounds good to me; I think the cooler spots in North Alabama have a great chance of reaching the 40s early Wednesday morning.
TROPICS: Gordon and Helene will remain far from land in the open Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are still very calm this morning. In the eastern Pacific, tropical storm Lane is expected to become a hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast. We will watch to watch the moisture associated with this system; that might be headed for New Mexico or Texas next week some a risk of flooding rains.
I had a number of e-mails asking for pictures of J.B. Elliott at our 10th birthday party last night (ABC 33/40 turned 10 this month, in case you haven't heard)... it is always something to watch him work a buffett line... but unfortunately he had some circumstances come up and couldn't make it.
It was great seeing many old friends and former employees last night; and a number of folks from Allbritton Communications were down as well including our Chairman, Robert Allbritton. What a great guy; he is the one to thank for the long form severe weather coverage. He gave me the green light to do this way before anyone else in the market even considered the idea. Robert has given us the freedom to build the weather operation our way, and we have blazed many new trails. I appreciate his leadership in allowing us to think outside the box in a big way.
WEATHER PARTY: Speaking of a big party, there is always one going on at our sister site:
http://www.weatherparty.com/
That is a great source of late breaking weather news, and if you register you can submit and vote on links to determine what is "published" on the front page. Be sure and bookmark that one.
I will have the next afternoon map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
DRY WEEKEND: Still no change in our thinking for today and the weekend. Dry weather with a warming trend; we will be in the upper 80s tomorrow and close to 90 by Sunday afternoon. Nights will remain pleasant.
While we enjoy the nice weather here, we will watch the big storm over the northwest U.S. bring the first big snow of the season to the northern Rocky Mountain region; some of the high terrain locations could see up to one foot of snow over the weekend. The GFS is trending deeper on that storm, and it maintains a vigorous system near the U.S./Canadian border early next week.
That system will swing a cold front down into Alabama, and with the better dynamics we will now have to look at mentioning some risk of strong to severe storms, and locally heavy rain. Looks like our best chance of rain and storms will come from about midday Monday through midday Tuesday, and SPC has now included the western part of the state in a severe weather risk (that risk for Monday runs from about Houston to Huntsville; see the video for more). Rainfall amounts of one to two inches can be expected as well. The key to the severe weather risk will be the surface based instability; if we can get some sunshine Monday then the weather could be pretty active here by the late afternoon and nighttime hours.
Keep an eye on the blog over the weekend and we will keep you posted about this threat.
Drier and cooler air will flow in here following the stormy weather, and by Wednesday of next week the GFS MOS is suggesting a high of 78 and a low of 56 for Birmingham with a clear sky. Sure sounds good to me; I think the cooler spots in North Alabama have a great chance of reaching the 40s early Wednesday morning.
TROPICS: Gordon and Helene will remain far from land in the open Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are still very calm this morning. In the eastern Pacific, tropical storm Lane is expected to become a hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast. We will watch to watch the moisture associated with this system; that might be headed for New Mexico or Texas next week some a risk of flooding rains.
I had a number of e-mails asking for pictures of J.B. Elliott at our 10th birthday party last night (ABC 33/40 turned 10 this month, in case you haven't heard)... it is always something to watch him work a buffett line... but unfortunately he had some circumstances come up and couldn't make it.
It was great seeing many old friends and former employees last night; and a number of folks from Allbritton Communications were down as well including our Chairman, Robert Allbritton. What a great guy; he is the one to thank for the long form severe weather coverage. He gave me the green light to do this way before anyone else in the market even considered the idea. Robert has given us the freedom to build the weather operation our way, and we have blazed many new trails. I appreciate his leadership in allowing us to think outside the box in a big way.
WEATHER PARTY: Speaking of a big party, there is always one going on at our sister site:
http://www.weatherparty.com/
That is a great source of late breaking weather news, and if you register you can submit and vote on links to determine what is "published" on the front page. Be sure and bookmark that one.
I will have the next afternoon map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
on September 15, 2006, 6:00 am
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