I have heard many theories from various people about what kind of winter we are going to have. So, it must be time to throw in a quick opinion from our weather office.
First off, nobody knows what the winter will bring. Meteorologists, amateur weather observers, old geezers who watch hornets nests and cow fur, the “Farmers Almanac”; you name it. There is not much skill in a seasonal outlook, no matter what people claim and what you hear. Having said that...
*Does a hot summer mean we have a cold winter ahead? Let me share a direct quote on this from the great Alabama weather legend, J.B. Elliott: “We have been asked, does that mean we will have a real cold winter? No connection. I once did an extensive study of Birmingham records going back to the mid-1880s and I could find no evidence that a hot summer automatically was followed by a cold winter, etc.” Enough said on that subject.
*Does the lack of hurricanes mean a cold winter? Lets not forget the hurricane season is far from over. And, we have had a number of big hurricanes this year, but that have been open Atlantic systems. But, the lack of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico is now being tied by some to a weak El Nino cycle, which was officially declared “in progress” by NOAA last week. Gary Petti, a former Meteorologist-In-Charge of the Birmingham NWS office, did an excellent bit of research on the impact of an El Nino cycle on Alabama back in 1997 (when a fairly strong El Nino was in progress). His conclusion that most winters during and just following an El Nino cycle were a little warmer than normal, featured little snow, but lots and lots of rain. And, active spring severe weather seasons were likely the following year.
Read Gary's paper here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/research/Elnino/el_nino.php
*We are statically overdue for a cold winter, and some type of ice storm. Our last major ice storm in Central Alabama was in January 1982, and the last winter that featured zero degree weather was the 1989-1990 season (the worst part of that winter was December 22-25, 1989, when the mercury dropped into the -5 to zero degree range across the northern half of Alabama). Forget the “global warming” hype, it can be very cold here and one year our luck will run out. Going into 2006, we knew we were long overdue for a hot summer, and look what happened.
*The current upper air pattern: There has been a mean upper air trough over the eastern U.S. for the past couple of months, and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been strongly negative since mid-July. If this pattern persists through winter, it would mean frequent shots of cold air.
As you can see from the notes above, there are plenty of conflicting signals for the coming season. If the current El Nino cycle remains weak, I think this winter will be colder than normal and might feature a few good winter storm threats. However, if the El Nino is strong, the winter would most likely feature no super cold air and lots of rain. I think this the key, so lets keep an eye on it. Here is the NOAA El Nino status page:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
Lets also watch the SOI (southern oscillation index)... when the SOI is strongly negative that signals a pretty decent El Nino:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin/figt2.gif
As always, time will be the only way to tell what will happen this winter, but all of us in the weather office will be waiting, and watching!
First off, nobody knows what the winter will bring. Meteorologists, amateur weather observers, old geezers who watch hornets nests and cow fur, the “Farmers Almanac”; you name it. There is not much skill in a seasonal outlook, no matter what people claim and what you hear. Having said that...
*Does a hot summer mean we have a cold winter ahead? Let me share a direct quote on this from the great Alabama weather legend, J.B. Elliott: “We have been asked, does that mean we will have a real cold winter? No connection. I once did an extensive study of Birmingham records going back to the mid-1880s and I could find no evidence that a hot summer automatically was followed by a cold winter, etc.” Enough said on that subject.
*Does the lack of hurricanes mean a cold winter? Lets not forget the hurricane season is far from over. And, we have had a number of big hurricanes this year, but that have been open Atlantic systems. But, the lack of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico is now being tied by some to a weak El Nino cycle, which was officially declared “in progress” by NOAA last week. Gary Petti, a former Meteorologist-In-Charge of the Birmingham NWS office, did an excellent bit of research on the impact of an El Nino cycle on Alabama back in 1997 (when a fairly strong El Nino was in progress). His conclusion that most winters during and just following an El Nino cycle were a little warmer than normal, featured little snow, but lots and lots of rain. And, active spring severe weather seasons were likely the following year.
Read Gary's paper here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/research/Elnino/el_nino.php
*We are statically overdue for a cold winter, and some type of ice storm. Our last major ice storm in Central Alabama was in January 1982, and the last winter that featured zero degree weather was the 1989-1990 season (the worst part of that winter was December 22-25, 1989, when the mercury dropped into the -5 to zero degree range across the northern half of Alabama). Forget the “global warming” hype, it can be very cold here and one year our luck will run out. Going into 2006, we knew we were long overdue for a hot summer, and look what happened.
*The current upper air pattern: There has been a mean upper air trough over the eastern U.S. for the past couple of months, and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been strongly negative since mid-July. If this pattern persists through winter, it would mean frequent shots of cold air.
As you can see from the notes above, there are plenty of conflicting signals for the coming season. If the current El Nino cycle remains weak, I think this winter will be colder than normal and might feature a few good winter storm threats. However, if the El Nino is strong, the winter would most likely feature no super cold air and lots of rain. I think this the key, so lets keep an eye on it. Here is the NOAA El Nino status page:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
Lets also watch the SOI (southern oscillation index)... when the SOI is strongly negative that signals a pretty decent El Nino:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin/figt2.gif
As always, time will be the only way to tell what will happen this winter, but all of us in the weather office will be waiting, and watching!
on September 19, 2006, 5:51 pm
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