The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Yikes... I have been hung up in a big traffic jam on I-459 related to the closing of I-65 due to the Presidential visit today. I sat there for a long time, and I wasn't able to get to Bluff Park Elementary for the weather program. I have rescheduled for Monday of next week... this was a day when you really couldn't get from East Hoover (where I live) to West Hoover during the middle of the day.
I am scheduled to be live today at the BJCC at 5:00 and 6:00 at the Southern Womens Show... I sure hope the traffic calms down there by then; the President is at the BJCC now speaking.
BACK TO WEATHER: So far our front hasn't been able to produce any significant rain. The moisture across Alabama is extremely limited, and we knew rain today would be pretty limited. The front has passed Memphis; their dewpoint is down to 49 with a stiff north breeze. Looks like the front is coming through Hamilton now; the wind at the SKYCAM site up there has shifted to the northwest, and is gusting as high as 20 mph. The dewpont is 55 and dropping.
We will hang on to some risk of a shower during the next couple of hours as the front comes on through, but it sure looks like most places will stay dry.
COOLER AIR TOMORROW: We project highs only in the low 70s tomorrow, even with maximum sunshine, and we go down into the 40s by early Saturday morning. The model MOS products have come in a tad warmer; J.B. has projected an average low of 46 for Saturday morning. Still some outside risk one of the colder North Alabama valleys will reach the upper 30s.
WARMER BY SUNDAY: A big warm-up begins Sunday as we rise into the 80s, and the first week of October looks warm and mostly dry for Alabama and the Deep South. I note the 12Z GFS MOS now shows 91 degrees for Birmingham on Tuesday, and that certainly is possible. Most days should feature highs in the 84 to 88 degree range, and the chance of rain looks very small due to the upper ridge.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any big rain producer for Alabama through mid-October on the 12Z GFS. But remember, there is very little skill in a specific weather forecast beyond seven days; anything beyond that time is out in voodoo land. I know there are some web sites that show specific forecasts out to 15 days; don't waste your time looking at them. The true sign of a mature meteorologist is understanding the limits of what we can do. I do show model output beyond seven days on our daily videos simply looking for trends and upper air wave patterns.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Isaac will remain out in the open Atlantic; there is another disturbance near the northern tip of the Leeward Islands with some potential for development in coming days. Models seems to split on that one; some of them take it out so sea, but the BAM set takes it toward the Bahamas and possibly Florida. The upper air pattern change, which will bring warm and dry weather to Alabama next week, could give the Florida idea some credibility. We will keep an eye on it.
WEATHER PARTY: Lots of interesting stuff on our sister site:
http://www.weatherparty.com/
I wonder whats up with the TV weather guy that is out in Chattanooga.
Guess I better hurry up and wrap this up so I can get on the road... it might be 2008 before I get to the BJCC in this traffic. I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Yikes... I have been hung up in a big traffic jam on I-459 related to the closing of I-65 due to the Presidential visit today. I sat there for a long time, and I wasn't able to get to Bluff Park Elementary for the weather program. I have rescheduled for Monday of next week... this was a day when you really couldn't get from East Hoover (where I live) to West Hoover during the middle of the day.
I am scheduled to be live today at the BJCC at 5:00 and 6:00 at the Southern Womens Show... I sure hope the traffic calms down there by then; the President is at the BJCC now speaking.
BACK TO WEATHER: So far our front hasn't been able to produce any significant rain. The moisture across Alabama is extremely limited, and we knew rain today would be pretty limited. The front has passed Memphis; their dewpoint is down to 49 with a stiff north breeze. Looks like the front is coming through Hamilton now; the wind at the SKYCAM site up there has shifted to the northwest, and is gusting as high as 20 mph. The dewpont is 55 and dropping.
We will hang on to some risk of a shower during the next couple of hours as the front comes on through, but it sure looks like most places will stay dry.
COOLER AIR TOMORROW: We project highs only in the low 70s tomorrow, even with maximum sunshine, and we go down into the 40s by early Saturday morning. The model MOS products have come in a tad warmer; J.B. has projected an average low of 46 for Saturday morning. Still some outside risk one of the colder North Alabama valleys will reach the upper 30s.
WARMER BY SUNDAY: A big warm-up begins Sunday as we rise into the 80s, and the first week of October looks warm and mostly dry for Alabama and the Deep South. I note the 12Z GFS MOS now shows 91 degrees for Birmingham on Tuesday, and that certainly is possible. Most days should feature highs in the 84 to 88 degree range, and the chance of rain looks very small due to the upper ridge.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any big rain producer for Alabama through mid-October on the 12Z GFS. But remember, there is very little skill in a specific weather forecast beyond seven days; anything beyond that time is out in voodoo land. I know there are some web sites that show specific forecasts out to 15 days; don't waste your time looking at them. The true sign of a mature meteorologist is understanding the limits of what we can do. I do show model output beyond seven days on our daily videos simply looking for trends and upper air wave patterns.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Isaac will remain out in the open Atlantic; there is another disturbance near the northern tip of the Leeward Islands with some potential for development in coming days. Models seems to split on that one; some of them take it out so sea, but the BAM set takes it toward the Bahamas and possibly Florida. The upper air pattern change, which will bring warm and dry weather to Alabama next week, could give the Florida idea some credibility. We will keep an eye on it.
WEATHER PARTY: Lots of interesting stuff on our sister site:
http://www.weatherparty.com/
I wonder whats up with the TV weather guy that is out in Chattanooga.
Guess I better hurry up and wrap this up so I can get on the road... it might be 2008 before I get to the BJCC in this traffic. I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
on September 28, 2006, 2:00 pm
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