EARLY EVENING UPDATE

Showers and some thunderstorms beginning to move into West and NW Alabama early this evening. Not much to it.

The whole system is going downhill as it approaches Alabama where the atmosphere is a lot less nervous,

Not much lightning either. Most of the lightning--and the strongest thunderstorms are over South Mississippi.

A new Tormado Watch that goes until 11 o'clock tonight covers:
SE Louisiana
SE Mississippi
Extreme SW Alabama (only Baldwin, Mobile, Washington counties)

SPC still has a lot of Alabama under a "slight risk overnight" Earlier they had a part of Central Louisiana to West Mississippi under a rare HIGH RISK. They lowered that to "moderate risk" thisd afternoon.

SPC will have an updated DAY-1 outlook around 8 o'clock.

Even in the moderate to high risk areas to our west, tornado activity has been at a minimum. Haven't seen a report of a confirmed tornado touchdown in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Instead, a hail-producing and flash-flood event. Lots of reports of hail. A few sample reports:

.....Flash flooding in parts of the Jackson Metro area.
.....40% of streets flooded at Cleveland, Miss., NW part of state.
.....Large tree limbs down at Cary, Miss.
.....Hail one inch in diameter at Carollton, Miss.
.....3/4 inch diameter hail covered the ground at Vicksburg.
.....Tornado warning for several parrishes in SE La., and for Walthall County in South Miss.

Rember, those are just a few of the reports...been a lot of reports of hail all the way from East Texas into Mississippi.

Here is the latest thinking from National Weather Service/Birmingham:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

FORECAST PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH FOCUS OF ACTIVITY WELL OFF TO THE WEST. WITH MUCH MORE STABLE
AIR OVER ALABAMA...AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURES WHICH SUPPORTED
STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS MID-MISSISSIPPI EARLIER TODAY...ARE ALSO
WEAKENING. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES...A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ARE JUST NOW EDGING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA FROM THE
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI AREA.

ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO STRAY IN TO WESTERN COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
STORMS...BUT GENERALLY BELOW 25 MPH.

AT THIS TIME...GUT LEVEL THINKING IS THAT ANY THREAT FOR THE AREA
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATEST CONCERNS OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE THREAT AND TRY
TO NAIL DOWN MORE PRECISE TIMING...AND MAGNITUDE...OF ANY THREAT...
HOPEFULLY BETWEEN 930 AND 10 PM.
&&