On Thursday, an outbreak of tornadoes occurred across southern Kansas. There were 26 reports of tornadoes reported with the system, which may be a one day record for October in Kansas. Cold core severe weather outbreaks like this one are unusual because instability is very low, but shear values are extremely high. Everyone was caught off guard by the event, including the Storm Prediction Center.
In response to a question about why the event was not predicted, SPC Lead Forecaster Rich Thompson was gracious enough to post this comment on the Stormtrack forum.
Jeff,
I was working the 4pm-12am shift at SPC. The first tornado warning was issued (literally) as I walked into the operations area, and that warning included a report. I took over the shift around 4:05 pm, and by 4:20 pm was initiating a conference call with DDC and ICT for what became tornado watch #839. Fifteen minutes is not much time to get your bearings, especially when I had to at least consider some aspects of the "main" outlook areas in OK/TX. We did not amend the outlook because the expectation was that the event would likely wind down before 01z. In other words, we missed our opportunity to forecast the tornadoes, so we were left with a short term "reaction" in the form of the tornado watch. The worst case scenario is when an unexpected event corresponds to shift change, as was the case Thursday afternoon.
Rich Thompson
SPC lead forecaster
http://www.chasetolive.com
In response to a question about why the event was not predicted, SPC Lead Forecaster Rich Thompson was gracious enough to post this comment on the Stormtrack forum.
Jeff,
I was working the 4pm-12am shift at SPC. The first tornado warning was issued (literally) as I walked into the operations area, and that warning included a report. I took over the shift around 4:05 pm, and by 4:20 pm was initiating a conference call with DDC and ICT for what became tornado watch #839. Fifteen minutes is not much time to get your bearings, especially when I had to at least consider some aspects of the "main" outlook areas in OK/TX. We did not amend the outlook because the expectation was that the event would likely wind down before 01z. In other words, we missed our opportunity to forecast the tornadoes, so we were left with a short term "reaction" in the form of the tornado watch. The worst case scenario is when an unexpected event corresponds to shift change, as was the case Thursday afternoon.
Rich Thompson
SPC lead forecaster
http://www.chasetolive.com
on November 4, 2006, 1:00 am
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