Record Cold Ahead?

April 19, 2005, 4:48 am
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The Tuesday morning web video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Wow.. looks like we have potential for record cold across much of the eastern U.S. not once, but twice during the rest of April. And, the GFS MOS is now spitting out 34 degrees for Birmingham Sunday morning! Lets look at everything in a time line fashion:

*NEXT TWO DAYS: Dry and mild weather continues today and tomorrow with a partly sunny sky each day and afternoon temperatures peaking in the 78 to 82 degree range.

*THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The models are faster now in moving showers into Alabama in advance of the first cold front, and I will now include showers as early as Thursday afternoon. Still looks like the best chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, will come Thursday night into Friday as a surface wave forms on the front over Tennessee. Rain amounts of one-half inch look like with this front, and I still do not expect any severe weather problems.

*THE WEEKEND: We should be dry on Saturday and Sunday, but temperatures will be much cooler. Highs drop into the 60s, and we won't go overboard Sunday morning right now, but upper 30s are certainly possible with the chance of some scattered frost in the colder valleys. The record low for Sunday (April 24) is 35 set in 1986; we might be close. I will be dropping our forecast low for Sunday morning to 39 degrees; but we all know this is not a "one number" place. Lows Sunday morning will vary from 34 to 42. And, keep watching for more changes as we get closer to the weekend.

*NEXT WEEK: Now the GFS is showing a pattern that looks like a severe weather setup by Monday night or Tuesday. A deep surface low northwest of Alabama with nice upper support. However, I really doubt if we can get quality unstable air in here that soon after reaching the upper 30s Sunday morning. One way or another, a few showers and storms are likely, and then yet another cold air shot arrives for the middle of next week.

We might be dealing with 30s again, and the risk of some frost by Wednesday or Thursday morning of next week, April 27-28. Hard to be specific this far out, but growers will need to pay attention to the numbers.

We have never had a freeze in Birmingham beyond April 23. It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out!

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Posted by  
on April 19, 2005, 7:43 am
Hey James now don't take this wrong but why are you the only one that is forecasting upper 30's on Sunday? The weather channel is not channel 13 is not and the weather company James spann.com is not. So what I think is the GFS is over doing it a little. But again I am not bad mouthing you at all just wanted to know.

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Posted by Vic  
on April 20, 2005, 12:23 pm
The others are coming around. The NWS has lowered their prediction for BHM to 42 now.

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