The Thursday morning web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
First off let me thank my friends at Edgewater Baptist church last night for the great hospitality. Had a great crowd and saw some old friends. The church building was destroyed by the F5 tornado on April 8, 1998... they are in a beautiful new building now and going strong.
TODAY: Moist air returns, and scattered showers and storms will form today, especially this afternoon during the peak of the daytime heating. Most of the showers will fall apart as the sun sets.
TOMORROW: SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow as a strong short wave passes north of us. The surface low will be way up north, in Indiana, and our winds will be rather unidirectional. So, the main threat should be from straight line winds and hail. Here are some severe weather parameters valid for 6:00 p.m. tomorrow (from the 06Z run of the NAM):
SBCAPE 1670
LI -6.7
0 to 3 km Helicity: 352
SWEAT 512
2m Dewpoint 66
Hail size: 1.35"
Total totals: 57
850 mb wind speed: 34 kts
500 mb wind speed: 45 kts
If that 0 to 3 km helicity value is correct, there might be more veering of the wind in the lower 3 km than we expect. Instability is fairly impressive, but the wind fields are rather weak. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out tomorrow. And, of course, as we often point out here the ultimate threat will be determined by small scale boundaries that we won't be able to see until tomorrow morning.
Latest QPF guidance shows rain amounts ot 1/2 to one inch.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday will be a rather blustery, chilly day. The NAM has a high of only 59 here on Saturday. Temperatures will be determined by the cloud cover. If clouds hang tough all day, we will probably stay in the 50s. If the sun breaks out (and we are projecting that for now), we should reach the low to mid 60s. The best chance of clearing will be from Birmingham south...
The latest GFS is showing 36 here Sunday morning; we still have 39 in our forecast. The actual numbers will vary from 34 to 42; but we expect the wind to stay up during the night, which will prevent a major frost threat.
Monday morning could be just as cold, and with light wind some frost in the valleys will be more likely. For now, I have 40 degrees in the forecast for Monday morning, but I might lower that into the upper 30s later today.
NEXT WEEK: Very tricky forecast. A fast upper flow sets up over the southern U.S... and the models are all over the road. The latest GFS now keeps us dry Monday through Wednesday, and brings in rain over the latter half of the week into the following weekend. Very low confidence right now...
Will be headed out to Bessemer Academy later today to see the kids over there with a program on meteorology. Will be back in the office later today for the afternoon update!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
First off let me thank my friends at Edgewater Baptist church last night for the great hospitality. Had a great crowd and saw some old friends. The church building was destroyed by the F5 tornado on April 8, 1998... they are in a beautiful new building now and going strong.
TODAY: Moist air returns, and scattered showers and storms will form today, especially this afternoon during the peak of the daytime heating. Most of the showers will fall apart as the sun sets.
TOMORROW: SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow as a strong short wave passes north of us. The surface low will be way up north, in Indiana, and our winds will be rather unidirectional. So, the main threat should be from straight line winds and hail. Here are some severe weather parameters valid for 6:00 p.m. tomorrow (from the 06Z run of the NAM):
SBCAPE 1670
LI -6.7
0 to 3 km Helicity: 352
SWEAT 512
2m Dewpoint 66
Hail size: 1.35"
Total totals: 57
850 mb wind speed: 34 kts
500 mb wind speed: 45 kts
If that 0 to 3 km helicity value is correct, there might be more veering of the wind in the lower 3 km than we expect. Instability is fairly impressive, but the wind fields are rather weak. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out tomorrow. And, of course, as we often point out here the ultimate threat will be determined by small scale boundaries that we won't be able to see until tomorrow morning.
Latest QPF guidance shows rain amounts ot 1/2 to one inch.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday will be a rather blustery, chilly day. The NAM has a high of only 59 here on Saturday. Temperatures will be determined by the cloud cover. If clouds hang tough all day, we will probably stay in the 50s. If the sun breaks out (and we are projecting that for now), we should reach the low to mid 60s. The best chance of clearing will be from Birmingham south...
The latest GFS is showing 36 here Sunday morning; we still have 39 in our forecast. The actual numbers will vary from 34 to 42; but we expect the wind to stay up during the night, which will prevent a major frost threat.
Monday morning could be just as cold, and with light wind some frost in the valleys will be more likely. For now, I have 40 degrees in the forecast for Monday morning, but I might lower that into the upper 30s later today.
NEXT WEEK: Very tricky forecast. A fast upper flow sets up over the southern U.S... and the models are all over the road. The latest GFS now keeps us dry Monday through Wednesday, and brings in rain over the latter half of the week into the following weekend. Very low confidence right now...
Will be headed out to Bessemer Academy later today to see the kids over there with a program on meteorology. Will be back in the office later today for the afternoon update!
on April 21, 2005, 10:37 am
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