The Thursday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Sorry this post is a little late; active weather keeping me behind the power curve this afternoon. The strongest storms have shifted well to our south, and we should have a nice break in the storms tonight and tomorrow morning.
MODERATE RISK: As you read from J.B.'s post below, our pals at Norman at the Storm Prediction Center have upgraded our severe weather risk to moderate for tomorrow. I still think the prime threat tomorrow will come from damaging straight line winds and large hail. A few isolated tornadoes, of course, cannot be ruled out. But, the wind fields look rather unidirectional based on model soundings at this time.
Looks like the greatest chance of severe storms will come from about 2:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m. tomorrow. Here are model extracted severe weather parameters for 6:00 p.m.:
SB CAPE: 1773
0 to 3 KM Helicity: 334
Lifted Index: -6.0
2m AGL Dewpoint: 66.1
Hail size: 1.30"
SWEAT Index: 515
The air could be very unstable... for the first time this season looks like we will have some true maritime tropical air in here, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
Lapse rates are very steep, and there is no doubt some high winds are very possible in the stronger storms. We will review all of this and have a closer look at the mesoscale situation early tomorrow morning.
THE WEEKEND: Much colder air rolls in here on Saturday. Looks like we stay in the 50s all day, and the NAM is showing 32 for early Sunday morning, with the GFS at 35. J.B. Elliott has lowered our forecast package low to 37. Growers and others with agricultural interests will need to watch these numbers closely.
Monday morning could be just as cold, and maybe there will be a greater risk of frost early Monday with the wind calm.
NEXT WEEK: Models are all over the map and there is little confidence in the forecast solution. Watch the video for more...
Thanks to the kids at Bessemer Academy today for being great listeners... the thunderstorm complex went right over the school during the program; the power even went out twice!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Sorry this post is a little late; active weather keeping me behind the power curve this afternoon. The strongest storms have shifted well to our south, and we should have a nice break in the storms tonight and tomorrow morning.
MODERATE RISK: As you read from J.B.'s post below, our pals at Norman at the Storm Prediction Center have upgraded our severe weather risk to moderate for tomorrow. I still think the prime threat tomorrow will come from damaging straight line winds and large hail. A few isolated tornadoes, of course, cannot be ruled out. But, the wind fields look rather unidirectional based on model soundings at this time.
Looks like the greatest chance of severe storms will come from about 2:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m. tomorrow. Here are model extracted severe weather parameters for 6:00 p.m.:
SB CAPE: 1773
0 to 3 KM Helicity: 334
Lifted Index: -6.0
2m AGL Dewpoint: 66.1
Hail size: 1.30"
SWEAT Index: 515
The air could be very unstable... for the first time this season looks like we will have some true maritime tropical air in here, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
Lapse rates are very steep, and there is no doubt some high winds are very possible in the stronger storms. We will review all of this and have a closer look at the mesoscale situation early tomorrow morning.
THE WEEKEND: Much colder air rolls in here on Saturday. Looks like we stay in the 50s all day, and the NAM is showing 32 for early Sunday morning, with the GFS at 35. J.B. Elliott has lowered our forecast package low to 37. Growers and others with agricultural interests will need to watch these numbers closely.
Monday morning could be just as cold, and maybe there will be a greater risk of frost early Monday with the wind calm.
NEXT WEEK: Models are all over the map and there is little confidence in the forecast solution. Watch the video for more...
Thanks to the kids at Bessemer Academy today for being great listeners... the thunderstorm complex went right over the school during the program; the power even went out twice!
on April 21, 2005, 4:58 pm
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