Brighter Days Ahead

April 26, 2005, 1:49 pm
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The Tuesday afternoon web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Wow... just peeked out the ABC 33/40 weather window and the sun is shining after a wet morning. Our rain total here at our studio in Riverchase is just under one inch: 0.96". One more band of showers will roll through this evening, and then we will be dry tomorrow and Thursday with lots of sunshine and warmer afternoons.

NEXT STORM EVENT: The GFS keeps pushing the system along faster and faster. A strong upper air short wave will be over Oklahoma on Friday, and will spin up a deep surface low over Tulsa. The surface low moves to western Kentucky by Friday night, with a trailing cold front to Shreveport and Houston.

Sure looks like a favorable setup for severe storms across much of Alabama, as dewpoints should be in the mid to upper 60s by the time the system arrives. The latest model data now suggests the prime risk of strong to severe storms will come from about 10:00 p.m. Friday through 10:00 a.m. Saturday. We will probably be able to narrow that down even more as the week rolls along. This might be a setup for a few rotating storms, and I would not be shocked if we have to pull an "all nighter" Friday night into Saturday morning.

REST OF THE WEEKEND: It now looks like the rain will be gone by midday Saturday, which is great news for NASCAR fans. This means no rain for both races. The sky should become partly to mostly sunny by Saturday afternoon, and Sunday should feature a good supply of sunshine. Highs over the weekend should be in the 70s.

THE LONG RANGE: Looks really wet toward the middle and end of next week in the May 3-6 time frame; if the GFS is correct we might have some flooding issues....
Mail this   Printer friendly   
Posted by cindy  
on April 26, 2005, 2:18 pm
does the GFS go out past next week......I know it's not too reliable in the long range but am trying to get a fix for weather at the beach for 5-14.....any info would be appreciated.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on April 26, 2005, 2:22 pm
Got a quostion for you guys... Has the storm prediction center become more liberal in their issuance of severe weather outlooks, or are we now just more aware of them due to the internet and blogs like this one? Thanks!

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on April 26, 2005, 3:59 pm
Jeff: I so wish I had the answer to that question. Maybe they simply base those outlooks on purely synoptic scale info and the REAL analysis is done in the mesoscale discussions. I say this b/c in almost EVERY severe weather outlook they issue, there is a several hundred-square mile area where NOTHING happens...and usually it can be determined by almost anyone doing even a basic analysis of weather charts, that severe weather is very unlikely in that area. I mean, why did it take them till late this afternoon to move the slight risk area down to about Montgomery when J Spann, and all the surrounding NWS offices had been saying that since yesterday morning...

Curious

I wonder.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Mike  
on April 26, 2005, 4:15 pm
Cindy...if you know a forecast for three weeks away would be unreliable, why do you even want to fool with it? The weather will do what it's going to do...

Reply to this comment
Posted by Jason  
on April 26, 2005, 7:18 pm
Some people commented that the moderate risk the other day(Friday) was a bust, I guess that was because their one spot didn't get hit by a storm or, the part of the storm that held the severe weather missed them. There were 277 reports of severe weather according to the chief meteorologist at channel 3 in chattanooga. I think that number definetly qualifies as a moderate risk.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Dawn  
on April 26, 2005, 8:18 pm
Where do you expect the worst of the weather over the upcoming weekend? I hope it doesnt get really bad with the worst threat being small hail. Will be watching abc3340 to see what to expect.

Reply to this comment